The logic of failure
by Dietrich Dörner · first published 1996
88% recommend12% neutral
Why HN recommends it
Short, sharp study of why smart people and experts fail in complex systems: narrow or overly broad focus, ignoring slow changes, overreacting. Suits leaders and engineers; draws on cases like Chernobyl.
Summarised by Claude from recommending comments
In The Logic of Failure, Dietrich Dörner identifies the roots of catastrophe, the small, perfectly sensible steps that set the stage for disaster. In incisive analysis of real-life situations and often hilarious computer simulations he helps all those involved in any kind of strategic planning recognize and avoid such logical yet devastating errors.
Affiliate links. As an Amazon Associate I earn from qualifying purchases.
Mentions per year
What Hacker News says
Related books
2008–2025Walt Disney
Neal Gabler
Recommended by 7 · mentioned by 87 recommend · 8 mention7 recommend · 87 recommend
2010–2026The sciences of the artificial
Herbert Alexander Simon
Recommended by 11 · mentioned by 2111 recommend · 21 mention11 recommend · 2111 recommend
2008–2026Thinking and deciding
Jonathan Baron
Recommended by 6 · mentioned by 86 recommend · 8 mention6 recommend · 86 recommend
2008–2025Made in Japan
Akio Morita
Recommended by 8 · mentioned by 138 recommend · 13 mention8 recommend · 138 recommend
2011–2025It's not luck
Eliyahu M. Goldratt
Recommended by 9 · mentioned by 129 recommend · 12 mention9 recommend · 129 recommend
2009–2026Normal Accidents
Charles Perrow
Recommended by 44 · mentioned by 5444 recommend · 54 mention44 recommend · 5444 recommend
2012–2026Apollo
Charles A. Murray
Recommended by 8 · mentioned by 118 recommend · 11 mention8 recommend · 118 recommend
2008–2026Systemantics
John Gall
Recommended by 45 · mentioned by 7545 recommend · 75 mention45 recommend · 7545 recommend
…Ritter & Webber, "Dilemma's in a General Theory of Planning" (1973) introduced the concept of "wicked problems" - http://www.uctc.net/mwebber/Rittel+Webber+Dilemmas+General_T... Dietrich Dörner, The Logic of Failure (1996) covers this ground very well, including with case studies of people trying to save a fictional third-world country in a computer simulation of an aid program... with uniformly disastrous results.
on “Bill Gates: My Plan to Fix The World's Biggest Problems” ↗…sharp, thoughtful book on our biases in analyzing complex systems. [0] 'An Introduction to General Systems Thinking', Gerald Weinberg [1] 'General Principles of Systems Design', Gerald Weinberg [2] 'The Logic Of Failure: Recognizing And Avoiding Error In Complex Situations', Dietrich Dorner
on “Ask HN: Any recommended resources to develop system thinking?” ↗…complex interacting parts well at all .. and are therefore not well placed to make such sweeping changes to it .. at least not consciously. The seminal book on this (for me) has been Dietrich Dörner's "The Logic of Failure".
on “Can We Wipe Out All Coronaviruses for Good?” ↗…is equipped with the skills to provide good "solutions" with full understanding of long term consequences. A good book to read about the possible cognitive failures of highly "educated" people is "The logic of failure" by Dietrich Dorner. In the case of FB, I think the illusory privacy of a personal network combined with the ability to centrally target these personal networks from the outside has been a mixing of…
on “Mark Zuckerberg: The Internet needs new rules. Let’s start in these four areas” ↗…presumably thought this principle encompasses (and with whom I agree). Anybody interested in second-order-thinking and decision-making could do far worse than obtain a copy of Dietrich Dorner’s excellent The Logic of Failure: Recognizing and Avoiding Error in Complex Situations (1997) wherein the author explores “patterns of thought that, while appropriate in an older, simpler world, prove disastrous for the complex world…
on “Chesterton’s Fence: A Lesson in Second Order Thinking” ↗There are some very interesting examples of this given in the book "The Logic of Failure" by Dietrich Doerner.
on “How many problems does this solution create?” ↗"The Logic of Failure" by Dietrich Dorner This is a particularly good book that ought to be spread around more.
on “Ask HN: Interesting (Non software) books?” ↗When casting programmers in such roles, it is necessary to gain a balance of perspectives. I recommend the book "logic of failure" by Dietrich Dorner for such a perspective. In that book, he presents simulation based studies on the psychology of dealing with systems with many interconnected parts and details how normally "smart"…
on “We Need a Programmer for President” ↗Anyone in any leadership position really should read The Logic of Failure by Dietrich Dorner. It covers the most common things that cause smart people who are experts on their subject matter to fail in complex situations. Overly broad focus, overly narrow focus, ignoring big…
on “Keys to Scaling Yourself as a Technology Leader” ↗The thin book "The Logic Of Failure: Recognizing And Avoiding Error In Complex Situations" by Dietrich Dorner offers one explanation of how and why we got where we are today. If I remember correctly, he says that a million years ago we…
on “Ask HN: What got us stuck into our greedy, environment killing ways?” ↗"The Logic of Failure" by Dietrich Dorner. Sort of an applied "Heuristics and Biases". "The Moral Animal" by Robert Wright. It unlocked the reasons why my impulses and aspirations were at such odds. "The Autobiography of…
on “Ask HN: Which books do you wish you'd read earlier in life?” ↗…and proposes a general model for this. It's pretty well accepted in ecological circles but has been criticised for a lack of empirical data. The general model is the same as Tainter's though. - "The Logic of Failure" by Dietrich Dorner is also a classic! (https://www.amazon.com/Logic-Failure-Recognizing-Avoiding-Si...) Well worth reading all of the above.
on “Lead poisoning probably did not cause the downfall of the Roman Empire” ↗A couple favorites that haven't been mentioned: 'An Introduction to General Systems Thinking', Weinberg, and he's got a dozen more worthwhile books behind it. 'The Logic of Failure: Recognizing and Avoiding Error in Complex Situations', Dietrich Dorner
on “Ask HN: Good books on philosophy of engineering?” ↗Dietrich Dörner, The Logic of Failure.
on “Ask HN: What books to read on developing mental models and increasing cognition?” ↗…Disney by Neal Gabler - Vision and innovation in entertainment. 21. Tuxedo Park by Jennet Conant - Invention of radar. 22. Insisting on the Impossible - Edwin Land and instant photography. 23. The Logic of Failure - Understanding and avoiding failure. 24. The Big Short by Michael Lewis - 2008 financial crisis. 25. The Box by Marc Levinson - Shipping container revolution. 26. Latitude by Nicholas Crane - Cartography…
on “Ask HN: Books about people who did hard things” ↗