Thinking and deciding
by Jonathan Baron · first published 1988
75% recommend25% neutral
Why HN recommends it
Comprehensive, thorough treatment of how people think and make decisions; praised as pure gold by a reader who found it dry but rewarding, and suited to readers who want depth over popularization.
Summarised by Claude from recommending comments
"Thinking and Deciding has established itself as a required text and important reference work for students and scholars of human judgments, decisions, and rationality. In this, the third edition, Jonathan Baron delves further into many of the key questions addressed in the previous editions. For example, how should we think? What, if anything, keeps us from thinking that way? How can we improve our thinking and decision making? Baron has also revised or expanded his treatment of topics such as risk, utilitarianism, Bayes's theorem, utility measurement, decision analysis and values. By emphasiz
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…superior search or by a combination of search and inference from the search. In fact, Google or its replacement is the most likely contender for the originator of the first true GAI. Jonathan Baron, in "Thinking and Deciding", views nearly all thinking, decision making, creative, and other mental processes as variations on a combination of search and inference. I haven't finished the book, but in what I have read so far…
on “What Scares Google” ↗…Mediocristan) vs. A Venture Capitalist (unpredictable, large risks, all his bets might fail or one may become a unicorn i.e. Extremistan). For a comprehensive study of decision-making, see the excellent Thinking and Deciding by Jonathan Baron.
on “Ask HN: How do you deal with life altering decisions?” ↗…idea space requires more than mere logic. This is what distinguishes creative people from mere mortals. And decision making in such a space has to be different too. This is mere verbiage. See Baron's Thinking and Deciding for a detailed study of the relevant subjects. >That was why the article was so interesting. One day there might be a mathematical way to define this problem and solution properly. Until then, like philosophers…
on “Engineers should invest in decision-making skills early” ↗…Rebellion ( http://books.google.com/books?id=VRsgtSBMh0YC&printsec=f... ) There is a fair amount of literature on the topic, varying from science popularization to "too hard". Right now I'm plowing through Thinking and Deciding, by Johnathan Baron. It's pure gold, but it's also the driest read in a long time.
on “List of fallacies” ↗…others I have seen (note I am still researching this area, anyone who has a favorite book can leave it in a comment). http://www.amazon.com/Project-Management-Pert-Precedence-Dia... Jonathan Baron's Thinking and Deciding is one of the best books on improving your thinking in general that I have ever read. http://www.amazon.com/Thinking-Deciding-Jonathan-Baron/dp/05...
on “Ask HN: What books to read on developing mental models and increasing cognition?” ↗Thinking and Deciding by Jonathan Baron: https://www.amazon.com/Thinking-Deciding-4th-Jonathan-Baron/... (I say this as someone who has read Thinking, Fast and Slow and other Kahneman books.)
on “How to Use Both Your Wits in a Startup” ↗Thinking and Deciding by Jonathan Baron: https://www.amazon.com/Thinking-Deciding-4th-Jonathan-Baron/... General System Theory by Ludwig von Bertalanffy: https://www.amazon.com/General-System-Theory-Foundations-App...
on “Ask HN: Any recommended resources to develop system thinking?” ↗1) Sources of Power: How people make decisions by Gary Klein Introduces https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Recognition_primed_decision It really resonated with me. 2) Thinking and Deciding by Jonathan Baron. Quite thorough and comprehensive. 3) There are also books on "TRIZ"(https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/TRIZ) a technique for problem solving, which arose from the former Soviet Union.
on “Ask HN: Which books teach mental models?” ↗…(https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Recognition_primed_decision) and the Naturalistic Decision Making (NDM) Framework (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Naturalistic_decision-making). For a comprehensive overview of various approaches/models see Thinking and Deciding by Jonathan Baron and The Psychology of Judgment and Decision Making by Scott Plous.
on “Best Process for Decision Making?” ↗…being suckered. Aside from the reference I gave, you would also benefit from reading books like "Asking the Right Questions", by Neil Browne & Stuart Keeley; Carl Sagan's "The Demon Haunted World"; and "Thinking and Deciding" by Jonathan Baron. These will help you distinguish between rational thinking and rationalizations. > So, spare me your shame game identity politics. Nothing I've said even remotely approaches anything…
on “Ask HN: How are you all staying sane?” ↗…parts (eg. reinforcement learning) of LLMs but does seem to give better predictable and more correct output. This can then be iterated upon to get a final acceptable result. PS: You might find the book Thinking and Deciding by Jonathan Baron useful for background knowledge - https://www.cambridge.org/highereducation/books/thinking-and...
on “Learn Prolog Now (2006)” ↗Do you by any chance know of any good resources about training one's RQ? I've read Stanovich, and the first choice in the bibliography seemed to be Jonathan Baron's Thinking and Deciding - which proved to be both very informative and dry as ash. Anything more practical?
on “What Is Intelligence, Anyway?” ↗…Thinking in Systems: A Primer by Donella Meadows 2. 'An Introduction to General Systems Thinking' [1] by the late, great Gerald Weinberg? 3. Sources of Power: How people make decisions by Gary Klein; Thinking and Deciding by Jonathan Baron. ; "TRIZ"(https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/TRIZ) a technique for problem solving, which arose from the former Soviet Union. 4. https://www.coursera.org/learn/model-thinking I am wondering…
on “Ask HN: Books/Articles for Non-Programmers..?” ↗I've heard that Thinking And Deciding is good, but I haven't read it personally.
on “Ask HN: Books on meta-learning” ↗