This time is different
by Carmen M. Reinhart · first published 2009
65% recommend35% neutral
Why HN recommends it
Data-heavy history of financial crises across many countries and eight centuries, showing the same patterns of debt, bubbles and defaults recurring. Suited to readers who want a long-term view; academic but thorough.
Summarised by Claude from recommending comments
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If you haven't already, I'd suggest reading This Time is Different. It turns out that our current situation isn't unique, and is in fact a pretty vanilla financial crisis. The elements are the same: large deficits that artificially prop up the economy causing a bubble,…
on “Once Greece goes...” ↗I wish this book were required reading for politicians: This Time is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly by Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff http://www.reinhartandrogoff.com/ They take a MASSIVE dataset - 8 centuries of data across hundreds of governments - and find…
on “Investors must recognize what ‘this time it’s different’ really means” ↗Here's one useful resource to understand crypto: "This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly", paperback, 2011, authors: Reinhart & Rogoff.
on “Resources for understanding cryptocurrency and blockchain technology” ↗I would suggest reading This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly by Carmen M. Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff. It is quite academic, but it comes the closest to answering this question that I have ever seen.
on “No one knows how much the government can borrow” ↗> While recessions are normal, I don't think this one will be. So this time it's different? You may be interested in the book This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly: > Throughout history, rich and poor countries alike have been lending, borrowing, crashing--and recovering--their way through an extraordinary range of financial…
on “Ask HN: What are you doing now to profit from the current or upcoming recession?” ↗This is supposed to be the definitive book on the subject: This Time is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly (http://www.amazon.com/This-Time-Different-Centuries-Financia...). Barons: "A tour de force of quantitative analysis covering financial crises affecting 66 countries…
on “Change for US” ↗Yep, this time is different [1]. In all seriousness, if you really believe this, I suggest you pick up a copy of that book. History doesn't repeat itself, but it does rhyme, and you'd be surprised just how similar this time is.…
on “The first Bitcoin post on HN” ↗…"The general theory of employment, interest and money" by John Maynard Keynes. And from the other side of the economic spectrum try: "Free to choose" by Milton Friedman. Probably, you should also pick: "This time is different" by Ken Rogoff and Carmen Reinhart.
on “Ask HN:Economics Classics?” ↗Poor Economics - Abhijit Banerjee & Esther Duflo Thinking, Fast and Slow - Daniel Kahneman The Signal and The Noise - Nate Silver Predictably Irrational - Dan Ariely This Time is Different - Carmen Reinhart & Kenneth Rogoff Subliminal - Leonard Mlodinow Fooled by Randomness - Nassim Taleb For something more lighthearted, I also enjoyed: An Economist Gets Lunch - Tyler Cowen Inside…
on “Ask HN: What are your favorite books? I'm bored” ↗…different texts that tackle the Great Recession and its causes if you're looking for more info on the subject: http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1949908 Lo thinks that the Reinhart/Rogoff This Time is Different is among the best-researched texts with the most quantitative support and analysis while still maintaining its readability.
on “Revealed: the 30-year economic betrayal dragging down Generation Y’s income” ↗…Serfdom (Hayek), The Book (Watts), Design of Everyday Things (Norman), Atlas Shrugged (Rand), Invisible Man (Ellison), Debunking Economics (Keen), Blood Meridian (McCarthy), The Center Cannot Hold (Saks), This Time Is Different (Reinhart/Rogoff), Infinite Jest (Wallace), Calvin and Hobbes (Watterson) All of these books are well written and have given me some perspective on interesting people/situations/ways of thinking.
on “Ask HN: What books do you wish your manager would read?” ↗…worth noting that this is the position adopted by George Friedman in his book “The Next 100 Years” where he predicts the fall of China and also North Korea by 2030 at the very latest. Also check out “This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly” by Carmen Reinhart from Princeton University Press. The Chastening: Inside The Crisis That Rocked The Global Financial System And Humbled The Imf https://www.amazon.com/dp/1586481819…
on “S&P Cuts China’s Credit Rating, Citing Risk from Debt Growth” ↗There is a whole (and very good) book titled “this time is different” https://www.amazon.co.uk/This-Time-Different-Centuries-Finan...
on “Litecoin and Ethereum buys and sells are temporarily disabled” ↗I want to recommend two books on this subject, of contrasting if not tangential subject matter. “Debt: the first 5000 years” by David Graeber and “This time is different” by Reinhart and Rogoff. They differ drastically in perspective, but both discuss capitalism with a very long- term view. To respond to the posts above, I want to say that it almost always feels like…
on “Institutions try to preserve the problem to which they are the solution” ↗This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly "Throughout history, rich and poor countries alike have been lending, borrowing, crashing--and recovering--their way through an extraordinary range of financial crises.…
on “Bitcoin’s Rise: What If It Is Not A Bubble?” ↗