When prophecy fails
a social and psychological study of a modern group that predicted the destruction of the world
by Leon Festinger, Henry W. Riecken, Stanley Schachter · first published 1956
38% recommend62% neutral
Why HN recommends it
Field study of a 1950s doomsday group whose prophecy failed, explaining how believers rationalize being wrong. A seminal, fascinating case study of cognitive dissonance, accessible to general readers.
Summarised by Claude from recommending comments
Social scientists test their hypotheses about prophetic-disconfirmation behavior by observing a group prophesying the end of the world.
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Interestingly enough, Leon Festinger first developed the theory of cognitive dissonance after looking at the behavior of doomsday cults. His book, When Prophecy Fails is fascinating: it looks at a doomsday cult in the 50s that believed aliens were going to rescue the cult from the world's end on a specific date. The members went all out preparing for the end, selling…
on “What Happens to the Brain During Cognitive Dissonance? (2015)” ↗_When Prophecy Fails. A Social and Psychological Study of a Modern Group that Predicted the Destruction of the World_ by Leon Festinger, Hank Riecken, and Stanley Schachter. I have no idea if it's popular or not but it certainly…
on “Ask HN: What are the best unknown books you have read?” ↗Well, good luck with that. Consider reading When Prophecy Fails to steel yourself for the possibility that 2036 ends up largely the same as 2026, only with more spam and surveillance.
on “AI companies in race to demonstrate their model most threatening to humanity” ↗The more real climate change becomes, the more fanciful and fantastic the deniers conspiracies get. There's a classic 70 year old book on this as a nice introduction https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/When_Prophecy_Fails In climate change's case, they say "it doesn't exist" and then it happens. It's the same social mechanisms regardless. They used to just call scientists alarmists, then fraudsters, and now that it's…
on “What Saved the ‘Miracle House’ in Lahaina?” ↗IDK how many people on HN have read When Prophecy Fails, but it's a seminal paper as I understand it. If you want a more contemporary and readable book on the same topic, When Prophecy Never Fails: Myth and Reality in a Flying-Saucer Cult by Diana Tumminia…
on “I swear the UFO is coming any minute” ↗Polls are astrological race science, and the reason you'll never be able to convince anyone of this is adequately covered by the book When Prophecy Fails. I've come to think that their bias is only slightly ideological, but instead springs more from a self-serving impulse to mirror the current beliefs of the audience most likely to believe in polls i.e.…
on “Biden wins White House, vowing new direction for divided U.S.” ↗There's one source that usually comes up in such discussions, When Prophecy Fails (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/When_Prophecy_Fails). It's difficult to respect it completely as a controlled act of science, like much social psych from that era (and an ongoing battle for the discipline,…
on “Twitter just banned a wave of prominent journalists with no explanation” ↗…and misreporting that have been uncovered in the months since his disgrace. What about Seth Mnookin's claim that Lehrer deliberately, obviously, and knowingly gussied up anecdotes from Leon Festinger's When Prophecy Fails, and then self-plagiarized his own deceptions? Or Daniel Bor's claim that Lehrer misrepresented A. R. Luria's The Mind of a Mnemonist, then blamed his editor for the error, then repeated the error elsewhere?…
on “Jonah Lehrer’s Mea Sorta Culpa” ↗The book was When Prophecy Fails [1] by Leon Festinger who, if memory serves, was one of the pioneers in the theory of cognitive dissonance. [1]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/When_Prophecy_Fails
on “My Two Years as an Anthropologist on the Photoshop Team” ↗Found this nice snippet from the book When Prophecy Fails by Leon Festinger, Henry RIECKEN, Stanley Schachter Festinger stated that five conditions must be present if someone is to become a more fervent believer after a failure or disconfirmation: 1. A belief…
on “When Prophecy Fails: When People Continue to Be in a Cult” ↗…and followers react when the impossible doesn't happen can be psychologically useful to know. I haven't read this book so don't recommend it, but I think it's cool it exists - https://www.amazon.com/When-Prophecy-Fails-Leon-Festinger/dp...
on “Turning Arabian Desert air into bottled water” ↗This phenomenon led Leon Festinger to the concept of cognitive dissonance. https://www.amazon.com/When-Prophecy-Fails-Leon-Festinger/dp... When reality contradicts beliefs, the mind would rather adjust its filters on reality than adjust its beliefs.
on “The Prophecies of Q” ↗there's a really interesting book called "When Prophecy Fails" that documents a doomesday cult. the cult had predicted a huge flood sometime in the 1950s and some sociologists infiltrated the group posing as believers to document their psychological response to…
on “The Polymarket users betting on when Jesus will return” ↗