The collapse of complex societies
by Joseph A. Tainter · first published 1988
56% recommend44% neutral
Why HN recommends it
Scholarly archaeological study arguing collapse stems from diminishing returns on added complexity, drawing on many civilizations. Suits readers who want data-backed rigor over popular treatments.
Summarised by Claude from recommending comments
A survey of complex (post-hunter-gatherer, hierarchical) societies and their collapse, and the various theories proposed to account for collapse. The author develops his own theory based on the increasing cost of managing complexity that acheives decreasing marginal benefits.
Affiliate links. As an Amazon Associate I earn from qualifying purchases.
Mentions per year
What Hacker News says
Related books
2016–2025Ecology and the politics of scarcity
William Ophuls
Recommended by 1 · mentioned by 21 recommend · 2 mention1 recommend · 21 recommend
2008–2026Limits to Growth
Donella H. Meadows, Dennis Meadows, Jorgen Randers, Dennis L. Meadows
Recommended by 19 · mentioned by 7819 recommend · 78 mention19 recommend · 7819 recommend
2015–2021Machines of loving grace
John Markoff
Recommended by 5 · mentioned by 65 recommend · 6 mention5 recommend · 65 recommend
2008–2026Collapse
Jared Diamond
Recommended by 43 · mentioned by 9143 recommend · 91 mention43 recommend · 9143 recommend
2015–2024Making the Modern World
Vaclav Smil
Recommended by 2 · mentioned by 42 recommend · 4 mention2 recommend · 42 recommend
2015–2025The Knowledge
Lewis Dartnell
Recommended by 24 · mentioned by 3124 recommend · 31 mention24 recommend · 3124 recommend
Further reading: Tainter -- "The Collapse of Complex Societies" Diamond -- "Collapse: How Societies Choose to Fail or Succeed" Meadows et al -- "Limits to Growth" edit: after listening to the podcast there is much in common with Tainter's general argument. I'll…
on “Odd Lots Podcast: Signs That a Civilization Is About to Collapse [audio]” ↗I'm more of a fan of anthropologist Joseph Tainter's theories from Collapse of Complex Societies (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joseph_Tainter#Social_complexi...). Civilizations are problem solving entities that have some sort of trick they've developed for solving civilizational problems. They…
on “Is the Semi-Permanent “Gunpowder Empire” Historical Scenario Plausible?” ↗I recommend reading "The Collapse of Complex Societies" by Joseph Tainter [0]. Complex societies tend to address problems by adding more and more rules and regulations, simply because they have always done so and it has been successful in the past. More…
on “Overfitting and the strong version of Goodhart’s law” ↗Joseph A. Tainter's The Collapse Of Complex Societies is a bit academic but very good study of civilizational collapse. It has a lot of data, studies many different civilizations and examines all popular theories of civilizational collapse. It points to…
on “Why nations fail” ↗…doesn't have to be a total destruction of the society, it's most often a fast transition to a lower level of social complexity. One of my favorite books (and a book referenced by the link above) is "The Collapse of Complex Societies" by Joseph A Tainter, he gives a great study on the nature of collapse with lots of examples (note, some of the examples are a little dated and dubious like the Ik). He also gave a few presentations on…
on “Is global collapse imminent? (2014) [pdf]” ↗…realities of addressing limits, I can't recommend William Ophuls, Ecology and the Politics of Scarcity highly enough. http://www.worldcat.org/title/ecology-and-the-politics-of-sc... Joseph Tainter, The Collapse of Complex Societies, spells out the more general dynamic. http://www.worldcat.org/title/collapse-of-complex-societies/...
on “Saudi Arabia's Oil Wealth Is About to Get a Reality Check” ↗…systems act to grab more resources for themselves at the expense of everyone else, is a common factor in all civilizations. Specifically, it's a common factor in the process that ultimately leads to the collapse of complex societies. Read the book 'Collapse of complex societies' by Tainter. It's a study of failed human societies throughout history, and the common factors in their process of collapse. Yes, it turns out there is a…
on “US patent chief to software patent critics: "Give it a rest already"” ↗…Fukuyama Volume 2: Political Order and Political Decay by Francis Fukuyama Seeing Like a State by James Scott Exit, Voice and Loyalty by Albert Hirschman The Problem of Political Authority by Michael Huemer The Collapse of Complex Societies by Joesph Tainter The majority of the time these authors are interested in outcomes, not in winning for whatever their home team is. Outside of academia Silicon Valley itself is having a serious discussion…
on “Sam Altman’s Manifest Destiny” ↗I recommend Collapse by Jared Diamond and The Collapse of Complex Societies by Joseph Tainter, as a treatise over how different societies reacted to resource shortages & environmental damage. They try to be non-political and are very informative, IMO.
on “The Golden State's War on Itself” ↗I liked Collapse, but I really liked "The Collapse of Complex Societies." Written by an archaeologist, addresses many other scholars' theories of collapse, and provides an excellent economics / complexity argument. http://www.amazon.com/Collapse-Complex-Societies-Studies-Arc...…
on “Focus on Ocean’s Health as Dolphin Deaths Soar” ↗The "increasing unnecessary complexity leads to collapse" hypothesis was very adeptly explored in the context of the collapse of many ancient societies by archeologist Joseph A. Tainter in his book Collapse of Complex Societies[1]. Briefly, he argues that most civilizations rely on some sort of wealth producing trick. As they grow they increase societal complexity to maintain that trick. After a while, the complexity produces…
on “Isaac Asimov: Man of 7,560,000 Words (1969)” ↗Read the Collapse of Complex Societies by Joseph Tainter. It is the Bible on this topic.
on “Ask HN: Why are humanity's large systems failing?” ↗…powerful and deeply convincing realization of what that is like. Unfortunately it is difficult to explain why without actually reading it. A more analytical understanding can be had from Joseph Tainter's The Collapse of Complex Societies. If the West falls, it does not get replaced by a younger empire such as China. A power vacuum of this scale cannot be filled. What happens is that the whole world falls into universal stagnation and…
on “Peter Thiel is trying to save the world” ↗…problem include Robert Wright, notable for his 2004 Massey Lecture series (Canada) "A Short History of Progress": https://www.cbc.ca/radio/ideas/the-2004-cbc-massey-lectures-... Also Joseph Tainter, The Collapse of Complex Societies (https://www.worldcat.org/title/collapse-of-complex-societies...) And Jared Diamond, Collapse: How societies choose to fail or succeed (https://www.worldcat.org/title/collapse-how-societies-choose...)…
on “How Scientists Got Climate Change So Wrong” ↗One should really read "Collapse of Complex Societies" by Joe A. Tainter. He's an archeologist who has a very timeless view of collapse based on diminishing marginal returns on societal complexity. A lot of the collapse theories that get a lot of ink are…
on “A Compass for the Politics of Collapse” ↗