Models behaving badly
by Emanuel Derman · first published 2011
83% recommend17% neutral
Why HN recommends it
Argues that models are metaphors that clarify what you want to understand, and warns against confusing them with reality; suits quants, scientists, and anyone using models in finance or everyday life.
Summarised by Claude from recommending comments
Affiliate links. As an Amazon Associate I earn from qualifying purchases.
Mentions per year
What Hacker News says
Related books
2012–2026The Signal and the Noise
Nate Silver
Recommended by 47 · mentioned by 7947 recommend · 79 mention47 recommend · 7947 recommend
2018–2026The Book of Why
Judea Pearl, Dana Mackenzie, Dana Mackenzie Judea Pearl, Mel Foster
Recommended by 59 · mentioned by 10359 recommend · 103 mention59 recommend · 10359 recommend
2007–2026Fooled by randomness
Nassim Nicholas Taleb
Recommended by 195 · mentioned by 307195 recommend · 307 mention195 recommend · 307195 recommend
2007–2026The Black Swan
Nassim Nicholas Taleb, David Chandler
Recommended by 263 · mentioned by 666263 recommend · 666 mention263 recommend · 666263 recommend
http://www.amazon.com/Models-Behaving-Badly-Confusing-Illusi... "A model...[is] really much more of a metaphor, an attempt to find an analogy between something you want to understand and something to really do understand, either heuristically…
on “Study predicts imminent irreversible planetary collapse” ↗Other people that used that quote is Emanuel Derman. He's an interesting character (PHD in theoretical physics, Ex-Goldman Sachs Partner). He is the author of Models.Behaving.Badly: Why Confusing Illusion with Reality Can Lead to Disaster, on Wall Street and in Life [1] and wrote a great paper on Metaphors, Models & Theories. I did a review of his paper [2], but some highlights:…
on “Misleading metaphors” ↗…probability,philosophy...) that can be read on lesswrong.com) -Intuition Pumps and other Thinking Tools -Sapiens -Edward.O Wilson Letters to a young scientist -Cédric Villani Birth of a Theorem -Emanuel Derman Models Behaving Badly -Letters From A Stoic by Seneca -Mathematics it's contents methods 3 Volumes (Aleksandrov et al.) -Nick Bostrom Superinteligence -The Moral Animal by Robert Wright
on “Ask HN: Favorite nonfiction books of 2018?” ↗…phenomena while theories explain them. we start with models, and then our curiosity eventually leads to a theory. refer [1] for a great read from a physicist turned quant. [1] https://www.amazon.com/Models-Behaving-Badly-Confusing-Illus...
on “Does X cause Y? An in-depth evidence review (2021)” ↗…* Ian Ayres Super Crunchers Why Thinking-by-Numbers Is the New Way to Be Smart * David Salsburg The Lady Tasting Tea How Statistics Revolutionized Science in the Twentieth Century * Emanuel Deman, Models Behaving Badly * Benoit Mandelbrot, Richard L. Hudson The Misbehavior of Markets A Fractal View of Financial Turbulence * Nassim Taleb, Fooled by Randomness
on “Ask HN: Good book about statistics and probability?” ↗…time, wreaking havoc on even the best models made by scientists. “I’ve developed a lot of skepticism about anyone bringing their expertise from one field to another,” said Derman, author of the book “Models.Behaving.Badly” and a Columbia University professor of financial engineering. “They say stocks are like atoms, or like genes. But stocks are not atoms or genes. There is a resemblance, but ultimately they are very different.”
on “Hedge Fund Uses Algae to Reap 21% Return” ↗