Fooled by randomness
the hidden role of chance in life and in the markets
by Nassim Nicholas Taleb · first published 2001
64% recommend33% neutral4% critical
Why HN recommends it
Shows how luck and randomness get mistaken for skill, and why people judge decisions by outcomes. Suits investors, traders, founders and anyone wanting to think probabilistically; also an engaging, popular read.
Summarised by Claude from recommending comments
"[Taleb is] Wall Street's principal dissident. . . . [Fooled By Randomness] is to conventional Wall Street wisdom approximately what Martin Luther's ninety-nine theses were to the Catholic Church."--Malcolm Gladwell, The New Yorker Finally in paperback, the word-of-mouth sensation that will change the way you think about the markets and the world. This book is about luck: more precisely how we perceive luck in our personal and professional experiences. Set against the backdrop of the most conspicuous forum in which luck is mistaken for skill--the world of business--Fooled by Randomness is
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Fooled by Randomness by Nicholas Taleb is probably the most influential book I have read so far. It completely changed my world view. But at the same time it made life less meaningful. Are there any books to minimize the…
on “Nicholas Taleb's Amazon Reviews” ↗…the losses more strongly than the gains. Looking at your stocks every day will at least add to your stress levels, and maybe your decisions will get thrown off. (This example is taken from the excellent Fooled by Randomness [2], which I recommend to anybody who wants to trade, or even understand the financial markets.) I focus my energies on areas where I have a an actual advantage, and I encourage others to do the same.…
on “Why I don't trade stocks and (probably) neither should you” ↗…were loosely related to this one in the way that they all refer to the way people think. Barry Schwartz - The Paradox of Choice Steven Pinker - How the Mind Works Nassim Taleb - The Black Swan; and Fooled by Randomness Leonard Mlodinov - The Drunkard's Walk (quite similar to Fooled by Randomness) Carol Dweck - Mindset: The New Psychology of Success Neil Postman / Andrew Postman - Amusing Ourselves to Death Rolf…
on “Ask HN: What book changed your life in 2013?” ↗…change the way you think about the way you think." Highly recommended. Language in Thought and Action by S. I. Hayakawa. How to Read a Book by Mortimer Adler. Envisioning Information by Edward Tufte. Fooled By Randomness by Nassim Taleb. E. W. Bovill's English Country Life 1780-1830 was recommended by pg a while ago. My favorite so far this year is What Intelligence Tests Miss by Keith Stanovich (2009). http://yalepress.yale.edu/yupbooks/book.asp?isbn=9780300123852…
on “Ask HN: Books That Gratify One's Intellectual Curiosity?” ↗…have had a tremendous amount of impact on my thinking in the past couple years. I highly recommend reading everything you can get your hands on. --- Author: Nassim Taleb Books: * The Black Swan * Fooled by Randomness Taleb has changed my way of looking at the world. His books are enjoyable to read, and his ideas thought provoking. I will continue to read the rest of his books over the next year. --- Author: Robert…
on “Ask HN: Books you read in 2018?” ↗* Fooled By Randomness (NN Taleb): Taleb is a complicated personality, but this book gave me a heuristic for thinking about long-tails and uncertain events that I could never have derived myself from a probability textbook.…
on “Ask HN: Which book or course gave you an unfair advantage?” ↗Fooled by Randomness by Nassim Taleb. Changed my life and my perspective on doing business, building company and understanding luck. Such a classic. Also honourable mention: Super Pumped by Mike Isaac. Great read on the legendary…
on “Ask HN: What's the best book you read in 2021?” ↗There was an entire book about this that became famous during the 2008 financial crisis: Fooled by Randomness by Nassim Taleb https://www.amazon.com/Fooled-Randomness-Hidden-Markets-Ince... It's literally about how options traders and the like can be lucky for 10 or 20 years, but they are actually idiots who…
on “Binance to acquire FTX” ↗…Hacker News + Slashdot of finance/trading is http://wilmott.com/. Check out the articles, peruse the forums. http://tickerforum.org is also superb, no-bs. I'd also recommend reading Nassim Taleb's books Fooled By Randomness and The Black Swan (info at his website http://fooledbyrandomness.com/) along with one he recommends: What I Learned Losing a Million Dollars http://infraredpress.com/ Those will all teach you what…
on “Ask HN: Good resources for learning+getting into Finance / Trading?” ↗Surely you are joking, Mr. Feynman. D. MacKay: Sustainable energy - without the hot air. N. Taleb: Fooled by randomness. M. Karinthy: A journey round my skull.
on “Ask HN: Summer Reading Recommendations?” ↗Have you read the Taleb's previous book, "Fooled by Randomness"? I was completely blown away by it. I didn't find "Black Swan" to be anywhere near as interesting, but that could just be because I read it second.
on “Ask HN: Good books?” ↗This entire paper and no reference to Nassim Taleb? They even use his language. Any fans of Fooled by Randomness, Black Swan, etc.? One of his main ideas, that he has followed up with Mathematics, is fragility to model error in the presence of fat-tails. If you’re interested in this kind of stuff I’d highly recommend…
on “A simulation of the insurance industry: The problem of risk model homogeneity” ↗I am a huge fan of Nassim Taleb and his book Fooled By Randomness really impacted the way I look at a lot of doom and gloom scenarios. His notion of fat tailed events/tail risks along with survivors confirmation bias is a central theme of many of the risks he describes.…
on “My take on the study from MIT that predicts “societal collapse”” ↗…the Gods: Remarkable Story of Risk Kahneman, Daniel (2011) Thinking, Fast and Slow Silver, Nate (2012) Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail, but Some Don't Taleb, Nassim Nicholas (2005) Fooled by Randomness, 2E _________ (2010) Black Swan: Impact of the Highly Improbable, 2E BUSINESS DEVELOPMENT / ENTREPRENEURSHIP / INNOVATION Christensen, Clayton (1997) Innovator's Dilemma Stone, Brad (2013) Everything…
on “Ask HN: What are the must-read books about economics/finance?” ↗Honestly, Black Swan is not Taleb's best book. I would recommend you read Fooled By Randomness first if you have the chance... http://www.amazon.com/Fooled-Randomness-Hidden-Chance-Market...
on “Black Swans - unexpected movements in financial markets.” ↗