Irrational exuberance
by Robert J. Shiller · first published 2000
62% recommend38% neutral
Why HN recommends it
Data-based account of speculative bubbles, covering price surges, new-era stories, media hype and overnight-millionaire tales. Suits readers wanting a gentle intro to collective investor psychology and market bubbles.
Summarised by Claude from recommending comments
"In this update of his 2000 bestseller, Irrational Exuberance, Robert Shiller returns to the topic that gained him international fame: market volatility. Shiller breaks new ground in this second edition by laying out in even clearer and starker terms the market excess that continue to destabilize the economy and disrupt our lives." "Building on the original edition, Shiller draws out the psychological origins of volatility in financial markets, this time folding real estate into his analysis. He broadens the evidence that investing in capital markets of all kinds in the modern free market is i
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For anyone that hasn't read it, I highly recommend 'Irrational Exuberance' by Robert Schiller, a professor at Yale which covers the theme 'This time its different' in depth, in a long term context covering around 200 years of economic data, in particular regarding herding of…
on “Investors must recognize what ‘this time it’s different’ really means” ↗…and not more "go-with-the-flow" services. Check out Trefis.com for a step in the right direction. (DISCLAIMER: I am not by any means affiliated with them). May I recommend the following literature: - Irrational Exuberance, by Robert Shiller (For a gentle introduction on how collective misguided investment can lead to bad things) - Value Investing, by Bruce Greenwald et al (For a gentle introduction to value investing)…
on “Ask HN: Review my investment website startup, StockYoyo.com” ↗…be able to advice you about the choice of investment owing to my nationality, I highly recommend reading following books. Cover-to-cover if you can. 1. The Intelligent Investor by Benjamin Graham. 2. Irrational Exuberance by Robert J. Shiller. 3. Thinking, Fast and Slow by Daniel Kahneman. OK, here's advice anyway :). Please, please do diversify your investments across different classes of products ; Equity, Debt, assets…
on “Ask HN: Any good investments for those saving a substantial portion of income?” ↗A Song of Fire and Ice Zennis Wheel of Time Quiet Lord of the Rings Irrational Exuberance
on “Ask HN: What are your favorite books?” ↗If you liked this, check out Shiller's book Irrational Exuberance. Released near the peak of the dot-com bubble, it covers a lot of related subjects.
on “Narrative Economics [pdf]” ↗…graph, or relative to other metrics that aren't shown like real increasing disposable income or tax-advantaged benefits of the asset class. For reference, Robert Shiller covers this topic well in his book Irrational Exuberance[2]. On a similar note to your parent post, the UK is looking quite dire as well. Interest rates aren't as high (yet), and although both countries have a strong preference for adjustable-rate mortgages,…
on “An alarming number of US homebuyers are underwater” ↗Personally, I like Schiller (http://www.econ.yale.edu/~shiller/) more than Roubini. His record: he wrote a book called Irrational Exuberance, and the .com market promptly crashed. He wrote papers from 2003 to 2007 suggesting the housing bubble was real, what it's effects were and how it might be mitigated / avoided. Where Roubini simply says…
on “That guy who called the big one? Don’t listen to him.” ↗…https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Causes_of_the_United_States_ho.... It leads to an article by Robert Shiller called "The Bubble's New Home" (Google it to get around the paywall) as well as his classic book "Irrational Exuberance".
on “Tech Startups Face Fresh Pressure on Valuations” ↗It is a textbook example of a speculative bubble. Shiller's book Irrational Exuberance is a great exposition on the topic. Almost every criterion he cites is satisfied: dramatic price increases, "new era" stories, mass media coverage, and stories of overnight millionaires. The only thing…
on “Bitcoin Surges Past $7,000 to Extend Record Rally” ↗…other hand, you made a loss till 2013, over 10 years later, after another bubble burst. To me it is more important to avoid risk of extreme loss than attempt to chase extreme gains. The Shiller book on Irrational Exuberance is better than the Greenspan movie IMO ;)
on “Abundant Capital” ↗Irrational Exuberance by Robert Shiller
on “The Microstructure of Wealth Transfer in Prediction Markets” ↗I remember liking 'Irrational Exuberance': http://www.econ.yale.edu/~shiller/books.htm
on “Bitcoin HITS $400” ↗…yield. Then they get really clover and making synthetic yield. And then we had the recent financial crisis, caused by these low rates themselves as a result of the dot-com bubble. For reading, Shiller's Irrational Exuberance is always fresh (data-based); and stuff by Michael Lewis is good too (narrative).
on “Sorry to burst your bubble” ↗Adam Smith - Wealth of Nations Keynes - The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money Ben Bernanke - Essays on the Great Depression Robert Shiller - Irrational Exuberance Levitt and Dubner - Freakonomics: A Rogue Economist Explores the Hidden Side of Everything Daniel Kahneman - Thinking, fast and slow
on “Ask HN: What are the must-read books about economics/finance?” ↗This time it's different? Irrational Exuberance by Robert Shiller could be on the list above.
on “Ask HN: What are the must-read books about economics/finance?” ↗