The fourth turning
by William Strauss, Neil Howe · first published 1996
41% recommend51% neutral8% critical
Why HN recommends it
Lays out a generational-cycle theory of American history, with recurring crisis and recovery eras, as a framework for reading current politics and institutional decay; suits readers of big-pattern history.
Summarised by Claude from recommending comments
First came the postwar High, then the Awakening of the '60s and '70s, and now the Unraveling. This audacious and provocative book tells us what to expect just beyond the start of the next century. Are you ready for the Fourth Turning?Strauss and Howe will change the way you see the world--and your place in it. In The Fourth Turning, they apply their generational theories to the cycles of history and locate America in the middle of an unraveling period, on the brink of a crisis. How you prepare for this crisis--the Fourth Turning--is intimately connected to the mood and attitude of your par
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…really great insight, and it reminds me of Ron Suskind's "Without a Doubt", on the "faith-based" presidency of George W. Bush. I think the Strauss and Howe model of cyclical history (see: Generations, The Fourth Turning) is fairly accurate. Third Turnings are characterized by confusion, socioeconomic stagnation/reversion, and rampant inequality; Fourth Turnings, by crisis, hardship and rapid social evolution. The last…
on “Bankers' excessive salaries as predictors of Depression” ↗I recommend reading William Strauss and Neil Howe's book The Fourth Turning: An American Prophecy - What the Cycles of History Tell Us About America's Next Rendezvous with Destiny [1]. The book introduces the idea of generational cycles [2] According to the theory, historical…
on “Will the US experience a violent upheaval in 2020? (2012)” ↗…time. Gen X was probably on par with the Greatest Generation in many ways, and Gen Y/Mill are too soon to tell, but certainly appear better than Baby Boomers. Strauss and Howe's book "Generations" or "Fourth Turning" seems pretty reasonable. (http://www.timepage.org/time.html) While I might not push the "redact the boomers" button (maybe...), it would pretty much fix all of the major problems in the US. Their…
on “Peter Thiel & Max Levchin: "Silicon Valley Lacks Radical Innovation"” ↗Sorry, typing from my phone so this will be short. Anyone who thinks generational labels and associated stereotypes are meaningless needs to read William Strauss and Neil Howe's excellent book, titled The Fourth Turning. It makes a very well-documented and compelling case that every generation is defined by the events of their era, and they take on the characteristics of one of four archetypes: prophet, nomad, hero and…
on “We Need to Ditch Generational Labels” ↗…US's longevity. Read Peter Turchin, War and Peace and War (discussed here a week or two ago), particularly noting his part about how multiple imperial peoples can't coexist in a single country... The Fourth Turning -- on the patterns that generations tend to fall into -- might also be interesting.
on “Show HN: Mest – Place to talk with those you disagree with” ↗…one thing, they'll seek strong leadership from government. And of course, the changing demographic will both create and destroy business opportunities. Strauss 7 Howe's books _Generations_ and _The Fourth Turning_ make a lot of interesting observations (and predictions) about this.
on “Gen Yers lack confidence, behave like idiots” ↗…Genius Failed Liar's Poker Buffett (Lowenstein) Bull! Black-Scholes and Beyond (textbook) Fixed Income Securities (textbook) The Road to Serfdom The Smartest Guys in the Room Fortune's Formula The Fourth Turning Inside the House of Money --- ENTREPRENEURSHIP / COMPUTERS (non-textbook) --- Masters of Doom It's Not About the Bike Dot. Bomb Founders at Work The PayPal Wars Coders at Work The Mousedriver…
on “Ask HN: Good books?” ↗…and work together nonetheless, and he kind of praises how all cohesive societies suppress dissenters... Another book to read, for those interested in neo-Toynbean searches for underlying patterns: The Fourth Turning, which deals with generational cycles of values. The authors, writing around 1990, expected a high risk of some sort of crisis -- possibly even a large terrorist attack -- somewhere around 2000, and a…
on “Computer Simulations Suggest War Drove the Rise of Civilisations (2013)” ↗Corruption never disappears completely, but it's pervasiveness seems to be cyclical. The 4th Turning is a good read on the subject https://www.amazon.com/Fourth-Turning-American-Prophecy-Rend... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strauss%E2%80%93Howe_generatio...
on “UC Berkeley inappropriately admitted students as favors to donors” ↗Read the Fourth Turning, I truly wonder if this is the “there is something in the air” thing. > The Strauss–Howe generational theory, devised by William Strauss and Neil Howe, describes a theorized recurring generation cycle…
on “Tens of thousands protest in Germany against the rise of the far right” ↗I highly recommend "The Fourth Turning is Here" by Neil Howe. According to the generational theory he co-developed (1): "The theory states that a crisis recurs in American history after every fourth generation which is followed by a recovery…
on “Boeing chief must have engineering background, Emirates boss says” ↗…ever written and I still think they were amazing but, my reading interests have changed, here are a few of the best books I've enjoyed reading recently. The War of Art - Pressfield Outlive - Attia The Fourth Turning - Strauss
on “Ask HN: What's the "best" book you've ever read?” ↗Warriors and Worriers (Benenson) The Prince (Machiavelli) Beyond Good And Evil (Nietzche) A History of Western Philosophy (Russel) The Fourth Turning (Strauss, Howe) Also, Discourses on the First Decade of Titus Livius (Machiavelli) is a fascinating read on human political machinations (albeit fairly slanted by Machiavelli's personal views)
on “Ask HN: What books taught you the most about human nature?” ↗…like him can do it again. It's important to read and learn from historical examples of how other empires failed and to avoid rhyming historical patterns of unnecessary chaos. Suggested reading: - The Fourth Turning by Howe and Strauss - The Sorrows of Empire by Chalmers Johnson
on “The End of US Democracy” ↗I'm not that familiar with the Fourth Turning and this also originates from the US, but I did find it quite helpful when considering where things are, have been and might be going and how the US is in a cycle along with other nations: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xguam0TKMw8…
on “Only essential services to operate from midnight” ↗