Rise and Fall of American Growth
by Robert J. Gordon · first published 2016
65% recommend35% neutral
Why HN recommends it
Data-rich economic history arguing that the 1870-1970 leap in living standards came from a few one-time inventions, while growth since has been slow. Suits readers who want hard numbers on innovation and productivity.
Summarised by Claude from recommending comments
The trajectory and impetus of American growth from the end of the Civil War until now.
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…been editing a rather attractive series through Princeton University Press on the subject, including books by himself, Gregory Clark (UC Davis, A Farewell to Alms), Robert J. Gordon (Northwestern, The Rise and Fall of American Growth), and others. Recommended. I've been looking at the dynamics of technological mechanism, and am settling on roughly nine: 1. Fuels, energy storage, and prime movers. 2. Materials, properties, and…
on “Why the Industrial Revolution Didn’t Happen in China” ↗…Global Minotaur: America, Europe and the Future of the Global Economy by Yanis Varoufakis [1] The Price of Inequality: How Today's Divided Society Endangers Our Future By Stiglitz, Joseph E. [2] The Rise and Fall of American Growth: The U.S. Standard of Living since the Civil War by Robert J. Gordon [3] 1. https://www.amazon.com/Global-Minotaur-America-Economic-Cont... 2. https://www.amazon.com/Price-Inequality-Divided-Society-Enda...…
on “YC's Winter Reading List” ↗…aside), and labour productivity would be growing fast, none of which is happening. Robert Gordon gives an expansive, evidence-based account of the development of American economic development in The Rise and Fall of American Growth: The U.S. Standard of Living Since the Civil War, and there's virtually no evidence for the grandiose claims made by the tech industry that we're living in some sort of era of rapid change. That for the most…
on “I invented Roomba and assure you, robots won’t take over the world” ↗…today, both qualitatively as well as quantitavely. (new marginal innovations in tech or pharmaceuticals today tend to be about 10-50x more expensive than just a few decades ago). Relevant reading: The Rise and Fall of American Growth: The U.S. Standard of Living Since the Civil War Robert J Gordon
on “The death of corporate research labs” ↗…communication networks ( phones in houses, radio ) did not exist before 1870, but were rapidly being deployed in the decade or two before the Queen's birth in 1922.. A book by Robert J. Gordon from 2015, "The Rise and Fall of American Growth," goes through this in great and fascinating detail. The life of an everyday American in 1870, starting off with the chamber pot and ending with an early bedtime by candlelight, was hard to even imagine…
on “Queen Elizabeth II has died” ↗…maturing. Moore's law is dead, the gold rush for the web is over, and smartphone penetration is approaching its natural limit of 100%. The two key readings I would recommend here are Robert Gordon's 'The Rise and Fall of American Growth' and Nicholas Bloom et al.'s 'Are ideas getting harder to find?' On (2), I think it's worth emphasizing that electromagnetism was mostly figured out in the late 1800s. Quantum mechanics was mostly figured…
on “Patrick Collison on Innovation and Scientific Progress [audio]” ↗…to 1950 in the developed world. How much is it worth to see your grandchildren grow up because you live longer and healthier and children don't die as much? This all comes from the fantastic book 'The Rise and Fall of American Growth' by Robert Gordon. It might be worth checking out for you. It goes on about what GDP doesn't measure but still uses it to show that productivity isn't rising like it used to and shows the implications…
on “Why Is Productivity So Weak? Three Theories” ↗…relatively fast, it's not having a big impact on the structure of the energy sector. If you want more hard data you should actually pick up the book mentioned in the article, Gordon's excellent The Rise and Fall of American Growth. Otherwise, anemic economic growth around the world and diminishing returns on science actually very intuitively show that the author is right. Total factor productivity in the UK for example has not…
on “What's Behind Technological Hype?” ↗Exactly. Gordon in the Rise and Fall of American Growth spells out the details of what real innovation looks like. Peter Drucker used to make about the same point, putting the emphasis on the 60 years leading up to 1914, which he considered the most innovative…
on “Why isn’t new technology making us more productive?” ↗I'm reading two books right now. The Rise and Fall of American Growth [1] by Robert Gordon and The Grapes of Wrath [2] by John Steinbeck. They complement each other, and this post, very well. I would recommend Gordon's book as an objective overview of the astonishing growth…
on “Unnecessariat” ↗…marginalrevolution blog: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TIHGOo7OC8c Another economist Robert Gordon has made this subject his life's work, it's a monster of a book if you want to dive deeply: The Rise and Fall of American Growth http://press.princeton.edu/titles/10544.html Bill Gate's review: http://qz.com/742686/bill-gates-recommends-this-economics-bo... I believe Elon Musk (who started Paypal with Thiel) started SpaceX and…
on “I’m Done Pretending SF Tech Is Visionary” ↗…return large revenues and profits, but deliver little by way of additional lifespan, reduced mortality, or more complex measures such as QALYs (quality-adjusted life-years). See Robert J. Gordon's The Rise and Fall of American Growth, which discusses this at length, or the work of Victor Fuchs, health economist. Some devices (or substances, availed via processes) are absolutely essential to various modern activities. Others could…
on “Edison’s greatest invention was a way of thinking about technology” ↗People are not machines. This is the argument presented when the 40 hour workweek was proposed. Instead, productivity went up! Because people had fewer injuries and illness. (1: Robert Gordon’s “The Rise and Fall of American Growth” is pretty much required reading for anyone who wants to know more about productivity.)
on “4-day workweeks can boost happiness and productivity” ↗…be techno-optimists in 1930, for obvious reasons, given what they had just lived through. But nowadays techno-optimism is a matter of pure faith, like a religion. The best book on this subject is "The Rise and Fall of American Growth: The U.S. Standard of Living since the Civil War" by Robert J. Gordon. https://www.amazon.com/Rise-Fall-American-Growth-Princeton/d...
on “Large percentage fear having children because of climate crisis” ↗Basic Economics - Thomas Sowell Economics In One Lesson - Henry Hazlitt The Rise and Fall of American Growth: The U.S. Standard of Living since the Civil War - Robert Gordon
on “US inflation jumps to 31-year high amid global supply chain crisis” ↗