How Big Things Get Done
by Bent Flyvbjerg, Dan Gardner · first published 2023
64% recommend33% neutral3% critical
Why HN recommends it
Data-driven look at why megaprojects run over budget and late, drawing on a large dataset of real outcomes. Useful for engineers and managers on how to plan, estimate, and run projects of any size, including software.
Summarised by Claude from recommending comments
Este livro contém segredos para planear e executar com sucesso planos de qualquer escala, e partilhados pelo maior especialista do mundo em megaprojetos. Nada é mais inspirador do que uma grande visão que se torna uma nova e triunfante realidade. Pense em como o Empire State Building passou de um esboço a uma joia no horizonte de Nova Iorque em 21 meses, ou em como o iPod, da Apple, passou de um projeto com um único funcionário a um lançamento de produto em onze meses. De acordo com as estatísticas, porém, 92 % dos megaprojetos ultrapassam o orçamento ou o prazo, ou ambos. Mesmo os esfor
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> There's so many complaints about cost overruns, etc. This is ironic. I recommend you read How Big Things Get Done[1], by Bent Flyvbjerg, the world's foremost expert on megaprojects. The book discusses an analysis of about 10,000 projects of over a billion dollars each. Which projects were most likely to come in…
on “U.S. Reenters the Nuclear Fuel Game” ↗See also Bent Flyvbjerg's[1] new book, How Big Things Get Done[2]. Recommended for everyone involved in projects. 1. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bent_Flyvbjerg#Megaproject_pla... 2. https://www.amazon.com/How-Big-Things-Get-Done-ebook/dp/B0BR...
on “Why Construction Projects Always Go over Budget” ↗…about the Sydney Opera House?) It seems like they are mostly all getting worse, not better. It doesn't have to be this way. Bent Flyvbjerg, a Danish professor, has a book on this: https://www.amazon.com/How-Big-Things-Get-Done-ebook/dp/B0B3... It might well be that nuclear plants are even worse than other types of projects, but I'd like to see the proof.
on “Why does nuclear power plant construction cost so much?” ↗Getting to work rapidly is guaranteed to be the wrong thing to do with any difficult problem. The book "How Big Things Get Done" elaborates on this and gives examples of how to do it right. 1. https://www.amazon.com/How-Big-Things-Get-Done/dp/0593239512
on “Lean Meets Wicked Problems” ↗These ideas hit home for me and heavily overlap with the ideas in How Big Things Get Done: https://www.amazon.com/How-Big-Things-Get-Done/dp/0593239512
on “John Romero on his book “Doom Guy” and developing games at a small scale” ↗…platform for cheap mobility. As for simplicity and scale: simplicity is absolutely a requirement for cost efficient scalability. To see how incredibly important this across disciplines, have a peek at "How Big Things Get Done" by Bent Flyvbjerg.
on “Cars suck, man” ↗Surprised nobody in this thread mentioned "How Big Things Get Done". Fantastic read that talks about the challenges of big projects when they don't bring on the right people with existing expertise: https://www.amazon.com/How-Big-Things-Get-Done/dp/0593239512
on “All Aboard the Bureaucracy Train” ↗…large public works projects are virtually always too low, and actual costs can easily be 5-10 times higher. There is a great book about this phenomenon (and how to avoid it) by Brent Flyvbjerg called "How Big Things Get Done".
on “Dali owner file petition to cap liability in Baltimore bridge collapse at $43.7M” ↗I'm currently reading how big things get done [1] It almost seems trite when you read "... The project took longer than anticipated ... " Really good read if you want to look into project estimations and planning [1] https://www.amazon.com.au/How-Big-Things-Get-Done/dp/0593239...
on “The project to migrate Android to Bazel is cancelled” ↗…don't have too many details to share, as I don't know what's relevant. But I'm asking if anyone has any advice or recommended reading regarding such? One book that is really inspiring me about it is "how big things get done" by Bent Flyvbjerg and Dan Gardner. In it, there's some key bits of advice such as * Think slow, ask fast, and mitigate long tailed risks. * Compartmentalize and stick to repeated processes. "Build…
on “Ask HN: Advice for leading a software migration?” ↗…events" when you stretch out projects in time suffices. Or in short: if you don't understand the goals you must navigate towards, it doesn't matter how much of the technical implementation you know. "How Big Things Get Done" by Flyvbjerg and Gardner zooms out a bit (well, a lot) and draws a relatively clear picture of what approximate shape the solution space has for nuclear. Yes, the book gives a high level perspective.…
on “Why has nuclear power been a flop? (2021)” ↗You may enjoy the book How Big Things Get Done by Bent Flyvbjerg and Dan Gardner. It details quite a few large-scale projects, mostly those that failed and went way over budget, and tries to come up with a model for why this happens so often. The…
on “The Canary” ↗…interesting to you: Undaunted Courage https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Undaunted_Courage This is about doing something extremely hard with a huge amount of unknowns, and the type of person it takes to succeed. How Big Things Get Done https://www.amazon.com/How-Big-Things-Get-Done/dp/0593239512 This is about project planning and has plenty of real examples and case studies. The Education of Cyrus by Xenophon https://www.thepsmiths.com/p/review-the-education-of-cyrus-b...…
on “Ask HN: Books about people who did hard things” ↗In How Big Things Get Done the author Bent is an advocate of reference class forecasting, which is basically what OP describes. Bent, who studies megaprojects, who goes on to say that the big mistake everyone makes when coming…
on “My washing machine refreshed my thinking on software estimation” ↗If you haven't already read it, you'd probably enjoy "How big things get done" by Brent Flyvbjerg and Dan Gardner - what you said is the central thesis of the book.
on “The problem with "vibe coding"” ↗