Thinking in bets
by Annie Duke · first published 2018
84% recommend14% neutral2% critical
Why HN recommends it
Poker-informed framework for deciding under uncertainty, especially separating decision quality from outcome luck (resulting) and using bets to test beliefs. Practical for engineers and anyone weighing choices.
Summarised by Claude from recommending comments
"Poker champion turned business consultant Annie Duke teaches you how to get comfortable with uncertainty and make better decisions as a result. In Super Bowl XLIX, Seahawks coach Pete Carroll made one of the most controversial calls in football history: With 26 seconds remaining, and trailing by four at the Patriots' one-yard line, he called for a pass instead of a hand off to his star running back. The pass was intercepted and the Seahawks lost. Critics called it the dumbest play in history. But was the call really that bad? Or did Carroll actually make a great move that was ruined by bad lu
Affiliate links. As an Amazon Associate I earn from qualifying purchases.
Mentions per year
What Hacker News says
Related books
2021–2023What Happened to You?
Bruce D. Perry, Oprah Winfrey
Recommended by 3 · mentioned by 33 recommend · 3 mention3 recommend · 33 recommend
2023–2026Quit
Annie Duke
Recommended by 5 · mentioned by 85 recommend · 8 mention5 recommend · 85 recommend
2022You're Not Listening
Kate Murphy
Recommended by 2 · mentioned by 22 recommend · 2 mention2 recommend · 22 recommend
2018–2024Becoming
Michelle Obama
Recommended by 3 · mentioned by 53 recommend · 5 mention3 recommend · 53 recommend
2020–2023The Book You Wish Your Parents Had Read
Philippa Perry
Recommended by 5 · mentioned by 65 recommend · 6 mention5 recommend · 65 recommend
2018–2023Jade City
Fonda Lee
Recommended by 5 · mentioned by 65 recommend · 6 mention5 recommend · 65 recommend
2019–2025Super Thinking
Gabriel Weinberg, Lauren McCann
Recommended by 8 · mentioned by 208 recommend · 20 mention8 recommend · 208 recommend
2022–2025Founders
Jimmy Soni
Recommended by 6 · mentioned by 76 recommend · 7 mention6 recommend · 76 recommend
Last year I wanted to buy Thinking in Bets (great book, btw). I was feeling impatient, so I looked it up on Barnes and Noble's website, and saw that a store where I was had it in stock. I went in to purchase it, and the price in store was a couple…
on “Barnes & Noble Set To Be Sold To Elliott Management For About $683M” ↗…book club service I had been kicking around all this time. The blog is my place to discuss interesting ideas from whatever books I'm reading (such as this fascinating "resulting" idea [4] I learned from Thinking In Bets). If you would like to contribute to the blog I am open to that possibility (just dig around on the site or my personal site to figure out how to contact me). [2]: https://kayce.basqu.es/sabbatical/prologue…
on “Why salt was so important throughout history (2018)” ↗A similar line of thinking is Annie Duke's Thinking in Bets: Making Smarter Decisions When You Don’t Have All the Facts. A good discussion on the book can be found here: https://www.artofmanliness.com/articles/how-to-make-better-d... Amazon link: https://www.amazon.com/gp/offer-listing/0735216355/ref=tmm_h...
on “Ask HN: What books changed the way you think about almost everything?” ↗"Thinking in Bets: Making Smarter Decisions When You Don't Have All the Facts" by Annie Duke [1] is just that book. It emphasises that a bad result does not have to be the result of a bad decision. [1] https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/35957157-thinking-in-bet...
on “What Winning $250k at Poker Taught Me About Money” ↗Annie Duke's "Thinking in bets" was pretty good as was Rory Sutherland's "Alchemy". "Thinking in bets" got me thinking about playing more imperfect information games. The obvious choice would be poker, but I've been wondering which…
on “Ask HN: Favorite Nonfiction Books of 2019?” ↗…individual level. I think just properly accounting for wins and losses can be good at instilling a sense of humility; I'd recommend he calculate his track record if he hasn't already. I enjoyed the book Thinking in Bets by Annie Duke, which is about the psychology of developing some habits around making bets and the cognitive biases we have. A Random Walk Down Wall St. is also a classic that is good at instilling a sense…
on “Bitcoin Halving Just Occured” ↗"Thinking in Bets" by Annie Duke describes this. One of the problems we have, societally, is talking in black and white. I'm right or wrong. It is extremely hard for anyone to admit they are wrong. In fact, a good way…
on “In defense of flat earthers (2020)” ↗- Creativity Inc. - Amazing story packed with management / leadership lession - Thinking In Bets - Hacks for better decision making - You're Not Listening (Kate Murphy) - Up your listening game to increase the quality of your life - The War of Art - Usual on lists for creatives but it applies for…
on “Ask HN: Non-fiction book recommendation for engineers” ↗very kind. the silicon valleyite answer is annie duke's thinking in bets. get the book or crank up any of the 3000 podcast interviews she's done. the realer answer is have about ~16 years of being in love with/thinking about microeconomics. maybe do some math/linear algebra…
on “Reflections on my time in Y Combinator” ↗I'm reading Annie Duke's brand new (and excellent!) book called "Thinking in Bets". She suggests that placing monetary bets is a good way to force yourself (and possibly others) to reason about how they know what they know, consider what the other person knows that they don't, etc.…
on “Cognitive Ability and Vulnerability to Fake News” ↗…your run of the mill self help book. Thought it had some nice insights in it. - Glass House [3]. Talks about the deterioration of industrial towns and the society that used to be built around them. - Thinking in Bets [4]. Approaching situations from the perspective of a gambler and how to choose what to do when you don't know all the facts. [1] https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/18114120-thanks-for-the-... [2]…
on “Ask HN: What books changed the way you think about almost everything?” ↗Annie Duke calls it 'Resulting'. I am about halfway through her book "thinking in bets". Recommended read so far.
on “What Winning $250k at Poker Taught Me About Money” ↗Annie Duke (one of the top players of all time) has a book called thinking in bets that examines this as a central thesis. Highly recommended.
on “What Winning $250k at Poker Taught Me About Money” ↗Among my favorite non-engineering books to help engineers is Annie Duke’s Thinking in Bets (referenced in the article). It approaches probabilistic thinking systematically (some of the book reflects my own trial-and-error learnings but with far more rigor). It also cites a lot of literature…
on “Strong Opinions Loosely Held Might Be the Worst Idea in Tech” ↗“Thinking in Bets” by Annie Duke takes you through a specific model. “Principles” by Ray Dalio gives a mesh of models that Ray has learnt or improved.
on “Ask HN: Which books teach mental models?” ↗