The war trap
by Bruce Bueno de Mesquita · first published 1981
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2022–2026first – last mentioned
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…interesting to dig into why that might have been, and the article briefly does. But why they aren't winning is less interesting. For more meat on how important a factor distance is, Bueno de Mesquita's The War Trap presents one of the most accurate models for predicting wars[1] I know of. That model measures the fighting ability of a country by two factors: 1. It's at-home military power as a sum of population…
on “Why is it so hard for the U.S. to win wars?” ↗I strongly recognise this sentiment. It's why it was so refreshing to read The War Trap[1]. Granted, it's 40 years old at this point, but the author took data I have access to, used maths I know, and derived new results on a complicated topic. It's incredibly inspiring. What other complicated…
on “What John von Neumann did at Los Alamos (2020)” ↗Yep, that's the one. If you read an interview with the designer Chris Crawford (can't find it at the moment), he mentions that the mechanics/dynamics were inspired by a book/paper called The War Trap by Bruce Bueno de Mesquita (game theorist who wrote some popular books). So a _very_ interesting game. Probably deserves to be revisited/remastered at some point.
on “Victoria III – First Impressions” ↗