The Precipice
by Toby Ord · first published 2020
20mentions
8recommended by
15HN commenters
2019–2023first – last mentioned
53% recommend47% neutral
Why HN recommends it
Structured framework for thinking about existential risks such as AI, engineered pandemics, nuclear war and climate change, with a thorough treatment that suits readers new to long-term risk and policy.
Summarised by Claude from recommending comments
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Toby Ord talks about this very problem in his book "The Precipice: Existential Risk and the Future of Humanity" [1] -- I totally recommend it if you are into this subject, although I have to admit I am pretty pessimistic after reading it, as it seems that the only way…
on “The world should think better about catastrophic and existential risks” ↗A must-read book on this topic is The Precipice by Toby Ord https://theprecipice.com/ I also happen to think this is the most important book that has been written this century.
on “Longtermism” ↗The Precipice by Toby Ord https://theprecipice.com/ An amazing nonfiction book that at times reads like science-fiction. A grand overview of various existential risks humanity faces and what we can do to decrease…
on “Ask HN: What is the best thing you read in 2022?” ↗…it, as a necessary step to get our house in order, before expanding out. Us attempting to expand into and shaping the universe is quite a task - so much could go right or wrong. I think Toby Ord's The Precipice[0] has a very useful framework for thinking about such risks. [0] https://theprecipice.com/
on “The Case for Degrowth” ↗Without paywall: http://archive.is/SH3EU The article mentions Toby Ord and his The Precipice - I think a must-read book: https://theprecipice.com/
on “The world should think better about catastrophic and existential risks” ↗…how our societies operate, how we care about each other (including non-human animals), how we care about our planet, and what role we see ourselves having in the future. Have a look at the book „The Precipice“ by Toby Ord for more details: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Precipice:_Existential_Ris...
on “Insect-worn microcamera streams video to phone 120 meters away” ↗Toby Ord's book The Precipice does a good job evaluating them. Top contenders are AI, bioengineered viruses, nuclear war, and climate change, with natural disasters that we fail to avert/mitigate, like asteroid impact or supervolcano…
on “Signs of Life discovered on Venus and atmosphere” ↗Very related: The Precipice - a book by Toby Ord https://theprecipice.com/ "[Existential risks] have only multiplied, from climate change to engineered pandemics and unaligned artificial intelligence. If we do not act fast to…
on “How Vulnerable Is the World?” ↗There’s a good book called “The Precipice” (2020) by Toby Ord that suggests things people can do: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Precipice:_Existential_Ris...
on “Ask HN: What can we do after a giant impact event” ↗…If we wipe ourselves out with nukes, bioengineering, etc, that's a lot of potential future people who won't get to exist in addition to all of the current people who would die. I think Toby Ord's "The Precipice" has a pretty good treatment of these issues, and is very thorough.
on “Should we care about people who need never exist?” ↗…readers can have a greater impact in expectation working directly on one of these other risks. There is an excellent chapter on the existential risks associated with climate change in Toby Ord's book The Precipice, which you can get a free copy of at https://80000hours.org/the-precipice/
on “Silicon Valley’s Obsession with Killer Rogue AI Helps Bury Bad Behavior” ↗…most of those take decades to unfold, and would still leave large parts of the earth habitable. Toby Ord wrote a book trying to estimate each of these risks, and put AI on top: https://www.amazon.ca/Precipice-Existential-Risk-Future-Huma...
on “Statement on AI Risk” ↗Looking forward to the upcoming book by Toby Ord: Precipice: Existential Risk and the Future of Humanity https://www.amazon.com/Precipice-Existential-Risk-Future-Hum...
on “Ask HN: Books you plan to read in 2020?” ↗> Well-known books like Toby Ord’s “The Precipice” and Philip Tetlock’s “Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction” are important parts of the rationalist firmament. Aside: I was pretty into the roguelikes that descend from the Moria/Angband…
on “In defense of interesting writing on controversial topics” ↗…infected the coming purge wipes me so that Clean Humanity may survive. If we wait too long, too many of us may be infected, and we may win but doom us all to a local optimum. And as Toby Ord argues in The Precipice, that would be a terrible end.
on “Are you hosting a memetic parasite?” ↗