The Great Demographic Reversal
by Charles Goodhart, Manoj Pradhan · first published 2020
14mentions
3recommended by
7HN commenters
2021–2026first – last mentioned
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Internationally aging populations are a systemic source of inflation in the cost of producing goods. I recommend Manoj Pradhan & Charles Goodhart’s, “The Great Demographic Reversal” (2019) for more on the topic. Covid occurring since then has exacerbated the international debt issues, as well as plucked more of the valuable remaining years away from our labor force’s working years.…
on “Ask HN: How much of inflation is caused by supply rather than demand issues?” ↗I recommend everyone who reads this comment to pick up a copy of The Great Demographic Reversal by Charles Goodhart & Manoj Pradhan, a book on the cost-rising effects of aging populations among advanced economies.
on “The US “labor shortage” is just a wage shortage (2021)” ↗2022 was a great year for my reading (in order of my favorites): The Great Demographic Reversal by Charles Goodhart - this book changed my life, but now that inflation and the retirements are in full swing it might be harder to make early moves on the knowledge. The graphs are also beginning to…
on “Ask HN: Books you read in 2022 and recommend for 2023” ↗Worth checking out the book The Great Demographic Reversal
on “BioNTech alone could lift German economy by 0.5% this year” ↗…0-covid strategy? What will happen to the cost of doing business when China loses 20% of its workers over the next decade or so due to aging? I've been a broken record about this but I highly recommend The Great Demographic Reversal. It provides a high level view of the forces at play in our world and is a real eye opener. caycep said prices were artificially low but that's not quite right - prices were as low as they deserved to…
on “Consumer prices rose 8.5% in March – highest since 1981” ↗…current admin's anti immigration stance (which is arguably good for domestic workers) and forward looking demographics [1] [2] (also good for workers). More on this macro trend can be found in the book "The Great Demographic Reversal: Ageing Societies, Waning Inequality, and an Inflation Revival" [3]. > The "shortage" is a fig leaf to cover up the desperate greed American businesses are feeling as their margins shrink and their supply…
on “Debate over H-1B visas shines spotlight on US tech worker shortages” ↗Recommended reading on this topic (demographic debt trap): The Great Demographic Reversal Ageing Societies, Waning Inequality, and an Inflation Revival - https://link.springer.com/book/10.1007/978-3-030-42657-6 | https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-42657-6 Demography versus Debt - https://www.bis.org/events/conf160624/goodhart_presentation....
on “From Baby Boom to Debt Doom: The Silent Crisis Killing Economies” ↗…As labor shortages worsen due to structural demographics, potential labor power and improved compensation and rights for workers improves. "Demographics are destiny" as the saying goes. The book "The Great Demographic Reversal: Ageing Societies, Waning Inequality, and an Inflation Revival" (https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-42657-6) is an excellent resource on this topic and modeling. https://www.suerf.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/f_fa99ccdbe...…
on “US Labor Force Demographics Are Worsening” ↗…populations vs inflation/deflation. It is quite interesting actually. Try Dimitri Kofinas's discussion with Charles Goodhart in this podcast [3] if you can spare an hour... [1] https://www.amazon.com/Great-Demographic-Reversal-Societies-... [2] https://www.amazon.com/Holy-Grail-Macroeconomics-Lessons-Rec... [3] https://hiddenforces.io/podcasts/charles-goodhart-demographi...
on “Asia’s advanced economies now have lower birth rates than Japan” ↗…labeled as a right-wing anti-gay nutjob back in the '00s and '10s. 1. Goodhart has finally (2020) written a book after decades of writing pieces on Project Syndicate and VoxEU: https://www.amazon.com/Great-Demographic-Reversal-Societies-...
on “Why labor shortages could be here to stay” ↗A discussion of Goodhart and Pradhan's claims in the "The Great Demographic Reversal".
…especially scary for people that are heavily into capital. This is my personal take and it's somewhat related to the post-Black Death phenomena in Europe that the article mentions. There's also "The Great Demographic Reversal" book where the authors apparently also predict rising inflation and take into account aging of the population (I've only watched an interview with one of the authors).
on “The Economics of Falling Populations” ↗I used to think so as well until I read The Great Demographic Reversal. The book argues that gains on capital will decrease as time goes on, due to labor becoming scarcer globally. Over the past half century global labor has been plentiful so of course capital to mobilize…
on “Thomas Piketty Thinks America Is Primed for Wealth Redistribution” ↗…compresses. To get to that point, domestic economies with surplus labor need to be stoked with investment (Africa and India) to maximize economic potential until the labor supply constraint is reached. The Great Demographic Reversal Ageing Societies, Waning Inequality, and an Inflation Revival - https://link.springer.com/book/10.1007/978-3-030-42657-6 | https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-42657-6 https://www.suerf.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/f_fa99ccdbe...…
on “No evidence ageing/declining populations compromise socio-economic performance” ↗