Superforecasting
The Art and Science of Prediction
by Philip E. Tetlock, Dan Gardner, Santiago Foz (argentino) · first published 2015
62% recommend37% neutral1% critical
Why HN recommends it
Research-based look at how to make accurate, calibrated predictions: top forecasters update on new information, and well-informed amateurs can beat experts. Suits anyone doubting pundits or wanting to forecast better.
Summarised by Claude from recommending comments
Everyone would benefit from seeing further into the future, whether buying stocks, crafting policy, launching a new product, or simply planning the week’s meals. Unfortunately, people tend to be terrible forecasters. As Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed in a landmark 2005 study, even experts’ predictions are only slightly better than chance. However, an important and underreported conclusion of that study was that some experts do have real foresight, and Tetlock has spent the past decade trying to figure out why. What makes some people so good? And can this talent be taught? In Super
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…predictions, not pay fan service to ethereum or suggest an actual bet. if anybody is interested in how to make proper predictions, I recommend the books by Philip Tetlock, especially the latest called Superforecasting [1]. EDIT2: I wasn't aware my views are so controversial, so here is some more background: If somebody was convinced something couldn't happen, he'd assign a probability of 0 to that event. If that person…
on “New Kid on the Blockchain” ↗For anyone who is interested in this topic, Dr. Tetlock just released a new book about it (http://www.amazon.com/Superforecasting-The-Art-Science-Predi...). We're also hosting a public forecasting tournament for him and his team that focuses on geo-political forecasting: https://www.gjopen.com/
on “Intelligent intelligence – Just how good are government analysts?” ↗True. Also, if you read Superforecasting[1] you'll learn about several experiments where "non-experts" beat experts by a lot by just being well informed. Even when the experts had access to confidential data. [1] https://www.amazon.com/Superforecasting-Science-Prediction-P...
on “Forecasting s-curves is hard” ↗Great post. Couldn't have said it any better myself. Point 3 is essential, IMHO. Superforecasting by Phillip Tetlock & Dan Gardner [1] relates an excellent description of this process in the realm of human forecasting even though they don't phrase it as a Bayesian approach. Essentially they found…
on “My Trouble with Bayes” ↗…Effectively With Legacy Code by Michael Feathers - Smarter Faster Better by Charles Duhigg - Sprint by Jake Knapp - Fooled by Randomness by Nassim Taleb - Becoming a Supple Leopard by Kelly Starrett - Superforecasting by Philip Tetlock - The Inner Game Of Tennis by Timothy Gallwey - Design Sprint by Richard Banfield - The Structure of Scientific Revolutions by Thomas Kuhn - The Signal and the Noise by Nate Silver…
on “Ask HN: Books you read in 2016?” ↗On that point, Superforecasting by Tetlock is an excellent book on softer analysis, which will make perfect sense to quant readers.
on “Cargo cult data science” ↗Factfulness: Ten Reasons We're Wrong About the World – and Why Things Are Better Than You Think - by Hans Rosling. Red Famine: Stalin's War on Ukraine, 1921-1933 - by Anne Applebaum. Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction by Phillip Tetlock. The Sports Gene: Inside the Science of Extraordinary Athletic Performance by David Epstein.
on “Ask HN: Best books you read in the past decade?” ↗…future date. Too many pundits make grand but imprecise predictions like "AI will become dominant in the next decade". The book 'Superforcasting' tackles this problem in detail: https://www.amazon.com/Superforecasting-Science-Prediction-P...
on “Bubble talk (2015)” ↗…officials make better decisions in the face of complex systems. Will it work? I'm optimistic but there will surely be unknown unknowns that could derail progress in addition to plain old politics. [0] - Superforecasting is a great book: https://www.amazon.co.uk/Superforecasting-Science-Prediction... [1] - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xdtssXITXuE Also, Timothy Gowers (Fields Medallist) has an interesting piece in…
on “No. 10 Downing Street hiring data scientists, physicists, weirdos” ↗…Product and Process Development. Womack, Machine That Changed the World. 8. How to innovate cheaply: Westrum, Sidewinder. 9. How to estimate things properly: Hubbard, How to Measure Anything. Tetlock, Superforecasting. Savage, The Flaw of Averages. 10. How to train people to be experts at things: Hoffman, Accelerated Learning. 11. How people fail at decisions: Kahneman, Thinking, Fast and Slow & Noise. I had to…
on “How I operated as a Staff engineer at Heroku (2020)” ↗…It involves a wide set of skills and approaches. The subject matter is basically anything that exists. It doesn't require money and you can play for free on sites like gjopen.com. I recommend the book Superforecasting by Philip Tetlock as a good introductory read. You may find you're good or terrible at it, but most people can get better. I'm biased, but I do think more fields/levels of leadership could benefit from…
on “Ask HN: I'm interested in so many disciplines, but what can I do with that?” ↗…of them, scenarios are created to explore how different interacting trends and drivers might create a future. HN readers interested in learning more about forecasting might read Philip Tetlock's book, Superforecasting, http://www.amazon.com/Superforecasting-The-Art-Science-Predi..., which has been justifiably on many must read lists.
on “Fifteen years ago the CIA tried to predict the world in 2015” ↗Try Superforecasting by Philip Tetlock. https://www.amazon.com/Superforecasting-Science-Prediction-P...
on “How to Call B.S. On Big Data: A Practical Guide” ↗Here's some: with why I like them Thinking, problem solving related: Superforecasting by Philip Tetlock: accurate forecasting Thinking fast and slow by Daniel Kahneman: how to avoid bias Misbehaving: like thinking fast and slow but more hilarious The checklist manifesto by Atul Gawande:…
on “Ask HN: What books have made the biggest impact on your mental models?” ↗…Orwell; Man's search for meaning - Viktor Frankl; Diplomacy - Henry Kissinger (not only international politics but also deep-thinking strategy that can be used anywhere); Meditations - Marcus Aurelius; Superforecasting - Philip Tetlock; Propaganda - Edward Bernays; Pitch anything - Oren Klaff; Guns, Germs and Steel - Jared Diamond; How to win friends and influence people& Stop worrying (both by Dale Carnegie); The…
on “Ask HN: What books have made the biggest impact on your mental models?” ↗