Shut Out
by Kevin Erdmann · first published 2018
7mentions
2recommended by
4HN commenters
2019–2024first – last mentioned
50% recommend50% neutral
Shut Out provides a much-needed correction to the causes and consequences of financial crises and secular stagnation.
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…“The third factor that somehow gets left out of a lot of armchair debates about housing and yet is an essential (possibly THE essential) element in all of this is credit.” As Kevin Erdmann explains in Shut Out (https://www.amazon.com/Shut-Out-Shortage-Recession-Universit...), the opposite is true. Credit is the factor that people jump to to the exclusion of rent (and expected rent given the low rate of homebuilding),…
on “What happens if building more housing doesn’t work?” ↗…housing (whether rented or owned) has become less affordable. That's mostly because of various regulations (especially zoning) that limit how much developers can build. See eg https://www.amazon.com/Shut-Out-Shortage-Recession-Universit...
on “Analysis of 200M newspaper pages: Sentiment has collapsed over the past 50 years” ↗…much larger than that. Again, please have a look at https://kevinerdmann.substack.com/p/the-housing-shortage-is-... and perhaps https://kevinerdmann.substack.com/p/random-notes or https://www.amazon.com/Shut-Out-Shortage-Recession-Universit... for a book length treatment.
on “Analysis of 200M newspaper pages: Sentiment has collapsed over the past 50 years” ↗> It might be right, but it's far from damning evidence that the housing bubbles are myths. Kevin Erdmann's book 'Shut out' https://www.mercatus.org/research/books/shut-out has a lot more evidence piled up. https://kevinerdmann.substack.com/p/interest-rates-arent-the... has some interesting recent observations about the…
on “A Student-Debt Bubble Fueled a Housing Bubble” ↗…having a chronic undersupply that has caused many people to move into the CCs. The OACs saw some ride and an increase in homebuilding but didn’t see nearly the drop in prices as the other types of cities. Shut Out suggests that a reaction to the rise in housing prices that was occuring in CACs led to policy that brought up interest rates and caused prices in the CCs to drop which then led to a loss in confidence…
on “‘Housing in ‘07 wasn’t a bubble” is a true statement that almost no one believes” ↗…that restricted lending to low-income households, forcing them to rent for more than they would have paid in mortgage (https://www.mercatus.org/tags/housing-affordability-series https://www.amazon.com/Shut-Out-Shortage-Recession-Universit...). When Kevin Drum looks at national medians, he entirely misses both of these problems.
on “Washington Can’t Solve a Housing Crisis That Doesn’t Exist” ↗…opportunity cost of owning gold increases. It should be noted that interest rates have steadily declined throughout history. [0] https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M2REAL [1] https://smile.amazon.com/Shut-Out-Shortage-Recession-Univers... [2] https://bettermeetsreality.com/how-much-oil-is-left-in-the-w... [3] https://www.mining.com/what-a-roman-centurions-pay-says-abou...
on “Inflation rose 9.1% in June, even more than expected” ↗