Secular cycles
by Peter Turchin · first published 2009
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5HN commenters
2020–2023first – last mentioned
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Given the content of the linked article, I heartily recommend taking a peek at Peter Turchin's work on Secular Cycles (1). He also keeps a blog, where he expands on some of the ideas. Not a light reading, though. The best introduction to his work was a book review at now deleted slatestarcodex - maybe it can be retrieved…
on “Shall the West Pass Too? Whispers from Fallen Civilisations” ↗I certainly found Secular Cycles a compelling read.
on “Can too many brainy people be a dangerous thing?” ↗…intense in academia as you move up the university prestige ladder. Peter Turchin has written a lot about the general dynamics of intra-elite competition and elite overproduction: see https://www.amazon.com/Secular-Cycles-Peter-Turchin/dp/06911... for example
on “Trans Netflix employees will stage walkout to protest Chappelle special” ↗Haven’t read the full article, but I note with interest that this is by Peter Turchin, the same person who wrote Secular Cycles. I haven’t read it myself, but I’ve always liked Scott Alexander’s review of that book [0] and its sequel [1]. In particular, Turchin predicted in 2016, that 2020 would form the peak of social conflict…
on “America Is Headed Toward Collapse” ↗A propos, there was a review on slatestarcodex for "Secular Cycles" effectively tracking the rise and fall of civilizations if I remember correctly. The argument is societies start to destabilize and stagnate once wealth concentrates to a certain point, after which war…
on “The Decadent Society: How We Became the Victims of Our Own Success” ↗