Risk savvy
by Gerd Gigerenzer · first published 2014
100% recommend
Why HN recommends it
Shows through many examples how professionals, especially in medicine, misread basic statistics and probability. It serves as an accessible introduction to where numbers come from.
Summarised by Claude from recommending comments
"Risk-taking is essential for innovation, fun, and the courage to face the uncertainties in life. Yet for many important decisions, we are often presented with statistics and probabilities that we don't really understand and we inevitably rely on experts in the relevant fields—policy makers, financial advisors, doctors—to analyse and choose for us. But what if they don't quite understand the way the information is presented either? How do we make sure we're asking doctors the right questions about proposed treatment? Is there a rule of thumb that could help choose the right partner? This enter
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…chances you have the disease? People on HN may be able to work this out, but I guarantee that many people (including doctors and nurses) can't. See Gerd Gigerenzer's work on this in Reckoning With Risk or Risk Savvy.
on “Alarming surge in drug-resistant HIV uncovered” ↗…is often labelled as naïve and too simple, by McClatchy and VandenHul (2005) for example. http://arno.uvt.nl/show.cgi?fid=129399 Gerd Gigerenzer has a number of books, the one I recently read was, "Risk Savvy" and he goes into some detail about the topic. All I'd do here is write a terrible book review, so if you're curious, I definitely recommend taking a look at the book. I'm not sure I totally agree with…
on “Kelly Criterion” ↗The counter-argument book to Thinking Fast and Slow: Risk Savvy by Gerd Gigerenzer
on “Ask HN: What books changed the way you think about almost everything?” ↗…dying with prostate cancer vs dying from prostate cancer. This book is a great read and i would advise anyone who is interested in health issues to get an intuition of "risk". https://www.amazon.co.uk/Risk-Savvy-Make-Good-Decisions/dp/0...
on “Ultrasound destroys 80 percent of prostate cancers in one-year study” ↗…false postives. It's talking about harm caused by actual positives. https://ebm.bmj.com/content/23/1/1 Gerd Gigerenzer has done a lot of work on this, so his books are useful. Reckoning With Risk or Risk Savvy are good. > What I would prefer to see is that screening comes with patient education so they understand the potential risks and inaccuracies and then let 'er rip. If something goes south, it's on them.…
on “Breast cancer detection in mammography using deep learning approach” ↗These are the over-diagnosis bias and the lead-time bias for anyone interested in learning more. The book Risk Savvy by Gerd Gigerenzer has a chapter that does a good job of covering these. The entire book is worth a read.
on “Vitamin B6 deficiency leads to social deficits and cognitive impairment” ↗…parameter tuning. This book does not look very relevant but it's actually a really useful introduction to thinking about data and where the numbers we hear about actually come from https://www.amazon.co.uk/Risk-Savvy-Make-Good-Decisions/dp/1... In conclusion if you can programme and have a good attitude towards learning and are diligent with efforts I think this should be a simple transition for you.
on “Ask HN: How to get started with machine learning?” ↗…positive. How many people of those who test positive have the disease?" You can also show this as a probability tree. https://imgur.com/a/JWVQRxI Two books I recommend are "Reckoning With Risk" and "Risk Savvy", both by Gigerenzer.
on “FBI, ICE using state driver’s license photos for facial-recognition searches” ↗I haven't read that. I've read Reckoning with Risk and Risk Savvy. Risk Savvy is later and better because he's had time to refine the ideas.
on “Doctors flunk quiz on screening-test math (2014)” ↗This article reminds me of a good book I read called Risk Savvy that cites a ton of examples (including breast cancer) of healthcare providers making poor decisions based on their misunderstanding of basic statistics and probability. It's a great read, and the author…
on “A Breast Cancer Surgeon Who Keeps Challenging the Status Quo” ↗Gerd Gigerenzer's work and the book Simple Rules are far more efficient ways of making better decisions than reading a list of 100+ "biases" and trying to overcome them. A good intro is Risk Savvy. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KnRWVmWQG24
on “List of Cognitive Biases” ↗…Specifically, the U.S. has the best cancer survival rates in the world. This is a misunderstanding of what "5 year survival rate" means. You're missing "lead time bias", and "over diagnosis bias". From Risk Savvy by Gerd Gigerenzer --begin quote While running for president of the United States, former New York City mayor Rudy Giuliani said in a 2007 campaign advertisement:1 "I had prostate cancer, 5, 6 years…
on “We’re a Lot Better at Fighting Cancer Than We Realized” ↗