Principles for Navigating Big Debt Crises
by Ray Dalio · first published 2018
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2019–2025first – last mentioned
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…happened in the past century, both deflationary like the 2008 subprime crisis in the US and much of the world, and inflationary like the 1930s Weimar Republic hyperinflation can be found in Ray Dalio's book "Principles for Navigating Big Debt Crises". The main determinant of whether a debt crisis becomes deflationary vs inflationary is whether the debt is denominated in local currency (and can therefore be managed/socialized via money printing, like…
on “Hyperinflation and Trust in Ancient Rome” ↗Go read Principles for Navigating Big Debt Crises by Ray Dalio. They (Bridgewater, biggest hedge fund in the world) look at data and economic history, and they’ve done quite well by it.
on “Inflated Bond Ratings Helped Spur the Financial Crisis. They’re Back” ↗…handled by devaluing the dollar against the gold (Executive Order 6102 and the follow ups), in 2008 it was handled by QE. There is such a thing as excessive money printing, though. See Ray Dalio's book "Principles for navigating big debt crises" which analyzes 48 debt crises across the world, a few of them in great detail and establishes a general framework of the way those play out.
on “Eyewitnesses describe brutal beatings by HK police” ↗If you want to understand what's going on, I strongly recommend reading Principles for Navigating Big Debt Crises by Ray Dalio. The book is highly researched and explains the pattern we're in, and what we'll see next. https://www.amazon.com/Principles-Navigating-Big-Debt-Crises...
on “Gold hits all time high” ↗You will not struggle to find Bridgewater/Dalio talking about the following themes: - The concept of "Debt cycles" (From Dalio's book "Principles for Navigating Big Debt Crises") - Interpretation of monetary policy effects on markets - Emerging markets (Mainly China) and the rise and fall of "reserve currencies"
on “Why in the world would you own bonds?” ↗On my reading list: Principles For Navigating Big Debt Crises by Ray Dalio
on “US national debt reaches a record $37T, the Treasury Department reports” ↗