Prediction machines
by Ajay Agrawal · first published 2018
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3HN commenters
2018–2019first – last mentioned
67% recommend33% neutral
The idea of artificial intelligence--job-killing robots, self-driving cars, and self-managing organizations--captures the imagination, evoking a combination of wonder and dread for those of us who will have to deal with the consequences. But what if it's not quite so complicated? The real job of artificial intelligence, argue these three eminent economists, is to lower the cost of prediction. And once you start talking about costs, you can use some well-established economics to cut through the hype. The constant challenge for all managers is to make decisions under uncertainty. And AI contribu
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…Self-Delusion" https://www.amazon.com/Trick-Mirror-Self-Delusion-Jia-Tolent... "Talking to Strangers: What We Should Know about the People We Don't Know" https://www.amazon.com/Talking-Strangers-Should-about-People... "Prediction Machines: The Simple Economics of Artificial Intelligence" https://www.amazon.com/Prediction-Machines-Economics-Artific...
on “Books on Thinking About Thinking” ↗…Ben Macintyre. No. 8. "Trick Mirror: Reflections on Self-Delusion" by Jia Tolentino. No. 9. "Talking to Strangers: What We Should Know about the People We Don't Know" by Malcolm Gladwell. No. 10. "Prediction Machines: The Simple Economics of Artificial Intelligence," by Ajay Agrawal, Joshua Gans and Avi Goldfarb.
on “Books on Thinking About Thinking” ↗…thousands of jobs looking for candidates don’t have most of that. There is a small piece of good news: Agrawal & al. summarised their theory on how ML will make predictions cheaper in a all-access book, Prediction Machines. The predictable success of that book will help. Basically, it tells about what ML does, without ever doing any ML at all: it just looks at how it’s a lynchpin technology, like search engine, digital…
on “Desperate for Data Scientists” ↗