Everything is obvious
by Duncan J. Watts · first published 2011
61% recommend39% neutral
Why HN recommends it
Explains why common-sense explanations often fail, drawing on scholarship and examples from social science. It suits anyone curious about how people interpret data and behavior after the fact.
Summarised by Claude from recommending comments
Discusses how the concept of common sense is inadequate in an increasingly complex world and draws on multiple disciplines to offer insight into the sources of such topics as popularity, economics, and self-deception.
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The "tipping point" theory popularized by Malcolm Gladwell's book was proven to be too simplistic and flawed by Duncan Watts, a network researcher currently at Yahoo. His book "Everything is Obvious - Once You Know the Answer" debunks this popular misconception. He describes many studies, simulations and actual experiments that show that how fast something spreads virally has less to do with where…
on “US Military Scientists Solve a Fundamental Problem of Viral Marketing” ↗Duncan Watts has a book titled Everything Is Obvious: Once You Know the Answer Very good and interesting read. http://www.amazon.com/Everything-Is-Obvious-Once-Answer/dp/0...
on “Why I stopped using the phrase “This is not rocket science.”” ↗Everything Is Obvious: *Once You Know the Answer by Duncan J. Watts Where Good Ideas Come From: The Natural History of Innovation by Steven Johnson The Upside of Irrationality by Dan Ariely The Hidden Brain: How Our Unconscious…
on “Ask HN: What are some Good Books you have read in past one year or so..” ↗…interested in these topic and how people behave when facts are presented in one way or another, take a look at this book. In my opinion, it's completely worth reading this book. http://www.amazon.com/Everything-Is-Obvious-Common-Sense/dp/...
on “The Anatomy of an Entrepreneur (2009)” ↗For people who enjoyed this article, I highly recommend Duncan Watts' book "Everything is Obvious" [1]. Its basically the thesis of this article expanded out over the course of a book with a lot of interesting examples and lessons drawn from scholarship (both Watts' own work and many others). [1]:…
on “Homo Narrativus and the Trouble with Fame” ↗You might also be interested in Duncan Watts' book "Everything is Obvious", which explores this tendency we have to assume that observed success equates to some skill. Its a nice read.
on “Netflix’s Secret Special Algorithm Is a Human” ↗Have you read the books Everything Is Obvious (Once You Know the Answer) by Duncan Watts, or Social Sciences as Sorcery by Stanislav Andreski? Your piece reminded me very much of both.
on “Confabulation in the humanities” ↗"Everything is Obvious," by MSR researcher Duncan Watts. Imagine every time when people infer seemingly-obvious extrapolations from data. This book addresses that phenomenon to make you more self-conscious about the limitations…
on “Ask HN: What are the books you wish your colleagues had read?” ↗There's a great book about this, Everything is Obvious (Once You Know The Answer) about how many scientific studies come up with obvious-seeming findings, but if they'd found the opposite, that would have seemed obvious to us too..
on “Statistics Done Wrong” ↗There's a book which explains this phenomena : "Everything is Obvious ... Once you know the answer" http://everythingisobvious.com/the-book/
on “Apple Wins $539M from Samsung in Damages Retrial” ↗> obvious in retrospect I recommend reading the preface to Everything is Obvious: http://everythingisobvious.com/wp-content/themes/eio/assets/...
on “Forced Exercise's Effects on the Brain” ↗This makes a lot of sense to me - it's not even because the apology is logical, but because it's a gesture that shows the speaker is thinking of the other's welfare. I recommend the book "Everything Is Obvious(^1): How Common Sense Fails Us" ^1 Once you know the answer. It talks about the human tendency of arranging observations and beliefs to fit what we're told, solidifying our belief that this is just…
on “Want people to trust you? Try apologising for the rain” ↗I really loved to read "Everything is Obvious" (once you know the answer) book. http://everythingisobvious.com/the-book/
on “What is 'common sense'?” ↗…Mavens and Connectors, only to find that they don't really exist. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Tipping_Point#Scientific For an actual evidence-based review of many Malcolm concepts, I recommend "Everything Is Obvious: Once You Know the Answer".
on “The 10,000-hour rule is wrong and perpetuates a cruel myth” ↗I like this a lot! If I allow myself explanation, I'd say your findings make a lot of sense, but I will instead heed the title of Duncan Watts' latest, "Everything is Obvious*: Until You Know the Answer" :) I wonder how much engagement you'd get if you made a browser plugin or even an alternative website that showed users a random selection from the top three pages of reddit/HN,…
on “What Makes Hacker News Fame?” ↗