Energy myths and realities
by Vaclav Smil · first published 2010
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MYTH: New energy sources and technical innovations will eliminate the need for fossil fuels within a few decades. REALITY: Comprehensive energy transitions take several generations. MYTH: Carbon sequestration (that is, capturing CO2 emissions from the atmosphere and storing it) is the solution to global climate change. REALITY: Because of its costs, technical challenges, and problems with social acceptance, carbon sequestration will not be able to prevent further substantial rise in carbon emissions. MYTH: Electric cars will replace conventional cars in the near future. REALITY: Electric cars
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…(which is not an energy source) is still high. Wind power production is still nowhere near at capacity even though it suffers from the deficiencies relative to hydro that you have mentioned. [1] Smil, Energy Myths and Realities (Excellent, highly recommended), http://www.amazon.com/Energy-Myths-Realities-Bringing-Scienc... [2]: Prentiss, Energy Revolution: The Physics and Promise of Efficient Technology (not that good if you've…
on “The Way Humans Get Electricity Is About to Change” ↗…Smil’s books and I think he is too stuck on the idea that history will repeat itself. I don’t think this transition compares to the past examples he uses for political and technological reasons and in fact Energy Myths and Realities doesn’t age well because of how rapidly the statistics got out of date on renewable adoption. That said the book is a great and useful historical work. His steadfastness to this hypothesis that “all…
on “The energy historian who says rapid decarbonization is a fantasy” ↗On this note, reading Vaclav Smil's "Energy Myths and Realities: Bringing Science to the Energy Policy Debate" [1] has been sobering. I had a similar presumption that this isn't a technological problem but rather of a policy conflicts (and subsequent perverse mechanisms…
on “Nuclear power looks to regain its footing 10 years after Fukushima” ↗…domestically and in India and Africa, and implementing more efficient transportation, heating and electricity generation could go a long way. [1] 2012 levels, from Energy Revolution by Mara Prentiss [2] Energy Myths and Realities: Bringing Science to the Energy Policy Debate by Vaclav Smil [3] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oil_reserves [4] http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/steo/report/global_oil.cfm
on “Shell stops Arctic activity after 'disappointing' tests” ↗…everyone else. I found the following comment about Smil: "There is a way how to evaluate the quality of prophets, seers and visionaries. Find their 5,10,15 years old predictions. I own the Smil’s book: Energy Myths and Realities: Bringing Science to the Energy Policy Debate (2010). So have a look how good prophet he was 10 years in advance and focus on photovoltaics (I own Czech translation of the book, so I need to re-translate…
on “Can solar costs keep shrinking?” ↗