Bernoulli's Fallacy
by Aubrey Clayton · first published 2021
8mentions
4recommended by
7HN commenters
2022–2024first – last mentioned
57% recommend43% neutral
There is a logical flaw in the statistical methods used across experimental science. This fault is not a minor academic quibble: it underlies a reproducibility crisis now threatening entire disciplines. In an increasingly statistics-reliant society, this same deeply rooted error shapes decisions in medicine, law, and public policy with profound consequences. The foundation of the problem is a misunderstanding of probability and its role in making inferences from observations. Aubrey Clayton traces the history of how statistics went astray, beginning with the groundbreaking work of the seven
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Bernoulli’s Fallacy by Aubrey Clayton is a good treatment of this subject and where frequentist statistics fails.
on “Bayesians moving from defense to offense” ↗…two children. At least one of them is a boy. What is the probability that both children are boys?” may be 2/3 instead of 1/2. The problem is much debated. I was made aware of this paradox by the book Bernoulli's Fallacy by Aubrey Clayton ( https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/55825328-bernoulli-s-fal... ), which I do recommend as an interesting read.
on “A confusing probability question: Red and green balls in an urn” ↗…human's relationship with time. Delightful read. Breath by James Nestor. Modern humans are breathing incorrectly due to factors of modern life. An exploration of the science and art of breathing properly. Bernoulli's Fallacy by Aubrey Clayton. In the statistical wars, this book takes a strong stance: Bayesian is unequivocally better. He exploses the racist/colonial history of frequentist statistics, as well as the fundamental…
on “Ask HN: What were the best books you read this year?” ↗…the most likely parameter with a uniform prior. If anyone is interested in the history of this stuff along with a discussion of the philosophical meaning of probability from the same author, his book Bernoulli's Fallacy is a pretty good read. My only qualm with it is the lack of much exposure on how to actually do Bayesian inference or a discussion on what it's like to do it in a modern setting. There's a brief few pages…
on “Eugenics Shaped Statistics” ↗…tended to go together, such as a person’s height and their shoe size, and he provided a formula for correlation that would reproduce his “coefficient of reversion” from the heredity studies.” Excerpt From Bernoulli's Fallacy Aubrey Clayton https://books.apple.com/us/book/bernoullis-fallacy/id1538214... This material may be protected by copyright.
on “Book Review: Bernoulli's Fallacy” ↗…Janes "Probability Theory: The Logic of Science" provides the fundamental theory. - Robert McElreath "Rethinking Statistics" provides a practical application of the theory in R. - Andrew Clayton's "Bernoulli's Fallacy" is a non-technical book that provides historical context to the frequentist vs bayesian debate. I'm fairly convinced now that Bayesian approaches have more mathematical rigor than the crusty old heuristics…
on “Ask HN: What Are You Learning?” ↗I should check this out! Bernoulli's Fallacy is pretty new though, it was originally published (hardcover) in August 2021. Which likely explains why GoodReads has more ratings, since it's barely been a year yet and books like this aren't exactly…
on “Book Review: Bernoulli's Fallacy” ↗Small unrelated bug report: in your "Book review: Bernoulli's Fallacy" article, there is a link to: https://www.thatgeoguy.ca/blog/%7B%7B%20site.baseurl%20%7D%7... I don't have much time to read through all this now but I'll check later, looks like great write-ups!
on “Reflecting on transducers in Scheme (2023)” ↗