Ages of Discord
by Peter Turchin · first published 2016
9mentions
2recommended by
5HN commenters
2016–2022first – last mentioned
40% recommend60% neutral
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For those interested in Peter Turchin's work, he just released a new book called "Ages of Discord". It's got a lot of mathematical notation, but if you're not put off by that it's a good read. http://peterturchin.com/ages-of-discord/
on “Computer Simulations Suggest War Drove the Rise of Civilisations (2013)” ↗…answer to the second question probably changes a lot, but I think the long term answer is probably: 1) Jonathan Haidt, "The Righteous Mind" 2) Nassim Nicholas Taleb, "Antifragility" 3) Peter Turchin, "Ages of Discord"
on “Wired to Care” ↗True, and you might be interested in Peter Turchin's "Ages of Discord" for a more in-depth investigation into how and why that happens.
on “More than 1M fewer students are in college, the lowest numbers in 50 years” ↗If you find this interesting, I suggest reading Peter Turchin's Ages of Discord, which factors this and other hypothesis into secular cycle models, which backfit nicely onto history.
on “The Elite Overproduction Hypothesis” ↗This is essentially the premise of Peter Turchin's Ages of Discord, specifically measured in "The Double Spiral of Well-Being and Elite Overproduction".[1] [1]https://peterturchin.com/age-of-discord/
on “Steven Pinker thinks your sense of imminent doom is wrong” ↗SlateStarCodex's review of Turchin's "Ages of Discord" has some more discussion https://slatestarcodex.com/2019/09/02/book-review-ages-of-di...
on “2012 Is Bullshit; 2020 Is When We'll Be in Trouble (2012)” ↗…Evolutionary Biology as well as in the Department of Anthropology and in the Department of Mathematics. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peter_Turchin --- Introduction to his latest book, published 2017: Ages of Discord: A Structural-Demographic Analysis of American Society http://peterturchin.com/ages-of-discord/
on “Long-Term Consequences of Coronavirus” ↗For one perspective on the answer to this question, see Peter Turchin's "Ages of Discord" (although he puts the turning point more in the mid-70's).
on “WTF Happened in 1971? (2019)” ↗The principal author, Peter Turchin, doubled down on his 2020 prediction a few years later in the book "Ages of Discord". Unfortunately, perhaps because it had a bit of math involved, it didn't have the impact we might wish it had: http://peterturchin.com/ages-of-discord/
on “Political instability may be a contributor in the coming decade (2010)” ↗